5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?

[Jesse Kidd]

5/10 NL

SB hasn't done anything remarkable, other than check call my flopped 2 pair of KQ on a 2 flush board and then fold to a 2/3 pot bet after a turn brick about 6 hands before. He seems a little on the aggressive side.

Folded to SB (700)who makes it 50
I call (terrible?) in BB (520)with 22

Flop ($100ish): 345 rainbow

He goes all in, I call.

Gross?

I figured decent outright bluff chance, and decent equity (40% or so?) even against a high pp. Folding felt really weak heads up, as I got about the best flop I could hope for that wasn't a set.

[9cao]

If you hadn't seen Villain raise out of the SB before then I think preflop call is pretty terrible. You will see a big hand and/or a continuation bet on the flop so often that you are only playing for set value. Given it is $40 to go and you are only 520 behind it is a fold.

On the flop I would say you could push if you are bet into but with Villain beating you too it I think it is a fold. You need to win 45% of the time to make a call profitable. If you are pretty sure that Villain will do this with AK and his SB raise is not some small or medium suited junk you can call I guess as it it will be almost break-even EV.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.5635 % 42.25% 02.32% { 2c2d }
Hand 2: 55.4365 % 53.12% 02.32% { JJ+, 66-22, AKs, AKo }

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
If you hadn't seen Villain raise out of the SB before then I think preflop call is pretty terrible. You will see a big hand and/or a continuation bet on the flop so often that you are only playing for set value. Given it is $40 to go and you are only 520 behind it is a fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

Position + set value are more than enough for me to call here.

[9cao]

You are only going to win 81% of the time versus an overpair when you hit a set on the flop. So assuming that every time we are against a big pair and we hit a set we stack off, +$322.40. If we hit our set 12% that becomes $38.70 and we are paying $40 to see this flop.

I know sometimes Villain has AK, hits and you stack off, but I think there are way more times that you hit your set and only get a flop continuation bet from a middle PP or missed AK. Villain could also have total garbage but that is not an assumption I like to make when I will see 5 overcards by the river most of the time.

So unless you plan on extracting some value from the times that you don't hit a set, which is very tricky with 22 this is an easy fold in my opinion.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Gross?

[/ QUOTE ]
Gross.

First, you call about 1/10 of effective stack size with 22. This is marginal, assuming you're playing for set equity.

Now you call an all in overbet of $470 on a $100 pot.

You're getting about 1.2:1 on this call.

Let's run some numbers.

Hands that are ahead:
Overpair that's not AA, 66 or 77 : 62:38 36 combos
AA, 66, 77 : 77:23 18 combos
Set : 75:25 9 combos
46s, 56s : 75:25 6 combos
Let's assume he never pushes with the made straight.

This averages to about 70:30 or 2.33:1

Hands that are behind:
Any two overcards that don't affect the straight: 77:23
Two overcards with an A : 80:20
Two overcards with a 6 : 66:34

Obviously, there are a buttload of combinations here. Let's say this averages to about 75:25. or 3:1.


SO......
When we are behind, we're about a 2.33:1 dog.
When we're ahead, we're about a 3:1 favorite.

If we fold, our EV is 0.

If we call, and are ahead:
$570 * 75 - $470 * 25 = 31000/100 = $310/hand

If we call and are behind:
$570 * 30 - $470 * 70 = -15800/100 = -$158/hand

Let X = probability that opponent has a worse hand than ours.

X*$310 = (1-X)*$158
310X = 158 - 158X
468X = 158
X = 158/468 = 33.7% / 1.2 (for pot odds) = ~28%

So.... your villian must be bluffing in this spot 28% of the time for this call to be correct.

I don't see most people bluffing nearly this often.

Besides, I think that this part of your read
[ QUOTE ]
SB hasn't done anything remarkable

[/ QUOTE ]
Should send you screaming for the hills.

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
You are only going to win 81% of the time versus an overpair when you hit a set on the flop. So assuming that every time we are against a big pair and we hit a set we stack off, +$322.40. If we hit our set 12% that becomes $38.70 and we are paying $40 to see this flop.

I know sometimes Villain has AK, hits and you stack off, but I think there are way more times that you hit your set and only get a flop continuation bet from a middle PP or missed AK. Villain could also have total garbage but that is not an assumption I like to make when I will see 5 overcards by the river most of the time.

So unless you plan on extracting some value from the times that you don't hit a set, which is very tricky with 22 this is an easy fold in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK - you make some interesting points.

First, where does the $322.40 come from? 81% of hero's remaining stack is more than 322.40 isn't it?

Either way, 38.70 is close enoughto 40 for me to call here.

Secondly, no offense but if you never extract value from a PP when you don't hit a set (particularly in position), then against any decent player who's played enough hands with you, you had better not count on stacking him when you do hit your set.

[Jesse Kidd]

Jim, thanks for the breakdown.

The 28% mark is helpful, as that is what I tried to do (although not nearly as well as you have) in the time I had to make the decision. Is he really bluffing <28% of the time he makes this play? I actually thought at the time that it was more like 40/60. I guess I'm just used to overaggressive players, and got stubborn.

I'll usually call for set value (which is all I meant to do here) as long as I can get at least 10/1 on the stack, which I was right at.

[9cao]

Actually it should have been $332.40 which is from:

(.81*$1040)-$510.

And then $332.40*.12= $39.89.

But in my mind, $40 is not the threshold between call and fold anyways.

I am not counting on stacking every time when I hit a set which points me towards fold. If I don't hit a set I may choose to play my hand and my position but I hardly think that this is +EV without considering the pot, which I didn't have to build in the first place.

We can agree to disagree though.