Thoughts on Expected Value

[Ed Miller]

If you merely raised every time the action came to you when you had AA, totally regardless of the action so far in the hand, you'd probably make money. No one turns AA into a loser because they don't get away from it fast enough.

My guess is that your sample size is just plain too small. I find it hard to believe that anyone plays badly enough to turn, say, AA-TT, AKs, AQs, KQs, AJs, and AKo into losers.

[Zetack]

Hey Lex, just an update on the Aces...after that streak of winning only one of six with em, I'm now up to (including the one of six) 8 of my last 15. So that's seven of nine since then, (and last six in a row). Poker's a funny game....I wonder if I'm doomed to go on a loosing streak with em now...

Just goes to show...I felt pretty negative about em when I was two out of nine....winning six times in a row with em tends to make you feel positive...in the end I figure they probably will wind up winning about as much as they are supposed to.

It's clear to me you've done some reading and thinking about poker....have you read Lee Jones' "Winning Low Limit Hold 'em"? I think you might find it very helpful.

I've been thinking about your statement that you are realizing that A-6off is "trouble". I wonder if you are clear on why? If you are I apologize if this seems condescending to you, but if you understand why it seems to me that it leads you indirectly to an understanding of the vulnerability of pocket aces and perhaps that would help you not to get tilty when they crack.

I think of a normal "hit" on the flop as it pairing one of your cards. Flopping more than that--your flush draw, open ended straight, set or trips...whatever-- is getting hit really hard by the flop. So on a normal "good" flop you hit one of your cards. With an A-6 off what do you like when the flop hits you?

If you hit a six...well that's interesting but likely a lot of cards are coming (and a couple probably came on the flop) that beat a six if anybody pairs em. On the other hand, if an ace comes on the flop you are certainly beat if anybody else holds an ace...and somebody else is likely to hold an ace since in low limit people tend to play almost any ace. Almost any hole card beats your six kicker.

So, winning small pots and losing big pots is not the reason one doesn't like A-6, its simply a symptom of how weak a starting hand it is. All lousy starting hands fit into that category. You can't bet either of the pairs you make with confidence, so you are in the position of checking and calling (small pot city) and hoping for a second pair or trips hitting you on the turn or river. The only hands you tend to win with it are ones where nobody else makes anything at all (or occaisionally somebody who makes a king pair when you pair the aces, who thinks that you don't have an ace because you have to play so cautiously.) And of course when you get lucky on the turn or river. (8.4-1 against improving your hand on each).

Hey, I know in low limit you see a ton of flushes, straights, boats, etc. But even in low limit, top pair, top kicker is how you build your stack. With, say A-K not only do you have that when the flop hits you, EITHER of your two cards pairing gives you that. With A-6 NEITHER of your two cards is likely to give you that. Even a hand like A-10, though significantly weaker than A-K has a fair chance of giving you top pair top kicker.

Of course, with A-6 you instead of a normal piece of the flop you could catch a huge piece of the flop. Say trip sixes. (trip aces are nice, but you still have kicker worries...that three of the aces are accounted for lessens that somewhat, but if someone does have an ace, again you are almost certainly outkicked.) or two pair.

And that leads you to the problem with aces. Top pair top kicker is your bread and butter, but they lose to all those sets, and flushes and straights you see. Essentially, AA is no stronger than an A-Q when you hit an ace on the flop. Its top pair (and you can't get outkicked with the AA) but its still just top pair. A strong but very beatable hand.

And if you look at AA as essentially the same as hitting top pair top kicker (which apparently doesn't make you tilt when it gets beat) perhaps that would help you with your tilting problem.

Why do you raise with your A-k or A-Q? Its because they play better when they hit against a smaller field. Same with aces. If you can't limit the field they are strong, but very vulnerable. It's just a pair man...a great pair, but still just a pair.

I dunno, am I annoying you with this digression into stuff you probably already know?

Good luck,

--Zetack

[Lexander]

I haven't played Limit since I posted this, but I have had the chance to continue my semi-regular rounds of NL SnG's.

To be honest, I have always been a serious gameplayer (board/computer/card), and the short but quick format of a 9/10/18 player tourney seems to suit me fine. Particulary since shorthanded you are forced to play more hands. I actually enjoy it more, and in the end that can be very important.

Looking back, my comment about AA was no doubt in error, and that is unfortunate because I focused too little on two fundamental ideas I am seeing.

#1) Newbies play many hands which have Negative EV even for experts.

#2) Newbies play many hands that normally have Positive EV wrong enough to remove much/all of the Pos EV.

I really should have pointed out something more like QQ against an A32 flop with all spades and 9 callers of the raise. I see a lot of people continue playing this hand far too long. I also see newbies play a lot of Q9o in early position and other such.

This suggests to me what I have already read in several places. I like Lee Jones' book, but I think that some of his weaker hands should probably be folded by a newbie early and often. And I just haven't seen a lot of value raising with 99's at Party at the .50/1 tables. Theory might suggest that this hand has PosEV in this situation, but with most players the frustration of the constant losses will negate most of the advantage.

What I am seeing a lot in my own limited experience is that at Low Limit a lot of the normally very good hands just aren't worth that much for a beginner to play. I am wondering if these writers are carrying over some of their own tendencies from some of the better games where these hands have a lot more value.

Addressing a very specific point, I have learned the general problem with A6o from my own experience. It is one of those hands where you don't benefit much from hitting the 6 and you have serious kicker problems if the A hits. You can lose a lot if you get outkicked while most of the time you will end up folding it.

But, anyhow, this was a very useful series of responses for me. I have begun to believe my problem with AA in Limit is just a slightly unusual streak of bad luck with one particular hand. As I said, my results with KK and QQ have been quiet good and I love those hands.

If it says anything about my style, somebody accused me of being a Mouse at one of the tables the other day. I was in a tourney and hadn't played any of the first 20 hands. Most of the hands where bad hands and the few good ones where marginal calls. I have adopted the general tourney strategy of rarely calling raises and generally reraising if I have the hand. Amazing how many times my AQs runs into AJo in such a situation. Then again, every so often my AQs suited runs into AK but I am getting better at sniffing that out.

- Lex

P.S. I will say this. Playing a lot of NL will do wonders for your tolerance for bad beats. I don't recommend it for everyone, but it gets easier each day.