Cyclical Luck

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Zedd:

I believe what happens is that many of these authors just don't understand how to play well. Put another way, they don't grasp the concepts that seperates the mediocre players from the experts.

But this creates a problem for them since they believe they are experts, yet don't do very well. This is especially true in loose games where they know their opponents are playing poorly yet their results are not very good. Thus, they look for other reasons to explain their results, and we see much of the nonsense that appears in the literature.

To give a specific example, in the 21st Century Edition of HPFAP there is what has become known as the "Ten-Nine Play" in the section on loose games. This strategy has been much debated on these forums and it is difficult for many players to grasp. However, it is correct.

Best wishes,
Mason

[DPCondit]

I think he was in his craps phase before he "wised up".

Yes, beating the horses is hard work, and he has studied it more exhaustively than you may imagine, nothing easy about it at all. He made a lot of money in horses, then invested in real estate in Malibu, and that is where he really made a lot.

Don

[morgan]

Ha! Thanks Al. You've helped corroborate much of what I've believed to be true [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Morgan

[AmericanAirlines]

Base metal can be turned into gold... In a cyclotron.

Sincerely,
AA

[Zedd X]

Mason,

Thank you for the reply (and everyone else who has posted). I understand that poker is such a complex game that there is often no clear-cut strategy in any given situation. It is too bad that there is some slightly inacurate text out there; although this is almost inevidable. Despite the section I quoted from the book being inacurate, I do however believe that this book also has alot of great advice...especially for those who's bankroll suffers "tilting"; so I have to give it credit. I have however read almost every book put out by 2+2. I have also worn the cover off of my HPFAP (like you said I would in the text). This book has been invaluable to me (and my bankroll is proof of that!). I am in full agreement that 2+2 Publishing offers by far the most accurate and effective strategies for todays poker game. That's why I joined the forum. Thank you very much Mason, Sklansky, and 2+2! Keep up the good work!!!

Best Regards,
Zedd

[Tekari]

[BruceZ]

P. 168 in the 21st Century Edition. Chapter "When the Pot Gets Big" in section on Playing in Loose Games.

[Cyrus]

In the post above, BruceZ explains that the advice given in the "Zen" book happens to be correct: That you should indeed continue playing when you're winning even though you know it's luck, because, as Bruce explains, your opponents will fear you more, etc. This is, of course, correct but it is not the reason given by the author. As Bruce also says, the author justifies his advice by what he calls the "bunching of luck", which is voodoo. We should be loath to follow advice that's correct in itself but justified erroneously ! (The old eating fish vs learning to fish argument.) It's truly better, for example, not to walk under an open ladder, but not because it's bad luck.

Having said that, please advise me on what outcome to bet on next, in order to have an edge, in the following real-world scenarios:<ul type="square">

1. The coin is flipped and it comes out Heads 5 times in a row.

2. The last five numbers that came up in a double-zero Roulette are 2 , 0 , 14 , 23 , 4 and 35.

3. 3-5, 5-4, 5-5, 6-5 comes up in consecutive throws by the same player in Craps.[/list]

[Cyrus]

"The coin is flipped and it comes out Heads 5 times in a row."

Coins are usually fair. This one might be biased towards Heads. Bet Heads.

"The last five numbers that came up in a double-zero Roulette are 2 , 0 , 14 , 23 , 4 and 35."

Those numbers are next to each other on the wheel. Roulette wheels are usually fair. This one might be biased towards that part. Bet those numbers again, straight up.

" 3-5, 5-4, 5-5, 6-5 comes up in consecutive throws by the same player in Craps."

Craps are usually a fair game. You might have stumbled upon a slider though. He may have the 5 locked up. Ignore the small numbers.

All the above tactics offer a better shot at those games.

[BruceZ]

All the above tactics offer a better shot at those games.

I agree, but the difference is negligible, especially for the coins and craps. To compute your edge, you must know the probability of a biased coin, wheel, or slider and use Bayes' theorem. The probability of a biased coin is small compared to the probability that what you observed happened by chance alone. Successful sliders are very rare compared to the probability that the numbers you observed happened by chance. You have a miniscule edge in these cases only when there is no penalty for assuming a bias and being wrong.