$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

[PFrese]

I might just have to try this, David.

[Art Vandelay]

Now that I think about it you guys are right. I've seen all in calls with J3s for goodness sakes early on in a Party MTT. I think the next time I get AA in the first round, especially if it's in LP I'm moving all in and hoping to double up. It will be interesting to see if this works.

[Rooger]

KK against:
AA - win 18.1%
AKs - win 65.9%
Axs - win 67.6%
QQ-22 - win 81.1%

You'll expect to win:
AA: (-1000 * 0.819) + (1000 * 0.181) = -638
AKs: (-1000 * 0.341) + (1000 * 0.659) = 318
Axs: (-1000 * 0.324) + (1000 * 0.676) = 352
QQ-22: (-1000 * 0.189) + (1000 * 0.811) = 622

With the percentages you gave, a call would give you an average of:

0.1 * -638 + 0.3 * 318 + 0.2 * 352 + 0.4 * 622 = 350.8 chips

[illegit]

You really shouldn't need math to figure this one out, especially given the ranges you gave. Give him AA 80% of the time then maybe it might be worth looking at, but since you can never do that anyway it wouldn't be particularly relevant.



((0.8 * -1000) + (0.2 * +1025)) * 0.1 = -59.5
((0.66 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.3 = +103.95
((0.67 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.2 = +71.35
((0.8 * +1025) + (0.2 * -1000)) * 0.4 = +248

103.95 + 71.35 + 248 - 59.5 = +363.8

That is huge +cEV.

EDIT: Yeah, roger checked me. I used some rough numbers so his is probably more precise.