Everybody poops

Nate tha' Great · #1 04-20-2005, 05:53 PM

Player notes:

BB is a tight, predictable player, almost a rock.

MP1 is also pretty tight and generally fairly reasonable, though a bit too passive for my tastes.

I didn't have a read on UTG+2 at the time so it would be disingenuous to include one.

Party Poker Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks.

River: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks

...what's the plan?

MoreWineII · #2 04-20-2005, 05:59 PM

Given your reads, I'd bet. Folding equity + possibility of having the best hand + the probability of not being raised by two passive players even if you don't have the best hand = bet.

I noticed you didn't include a limit, that may or may not matter. Personally, I think a river bet after a turn checkthrough takes down the pot more often at 5/10 and higher, but that may not be accurate.

Grr, I didn't notice that UTG+2 was still in the hand. That changes things. Goddamit, now I have to think more.

Nate tha' Great · #3 04-20-2005, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I noticed you didn't include a limit, that may or may not matter. Personally, I think a river bet after a turn checkthrough takes down the pot more often at 5/10 and higher, but that may not be accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Limit was >= 5/10.

thirddan · #4 04-20-2005, 06:08 PM

im check/folding...

there are two decent players that both put in two bets on the flop + an unknow that did as well...do you think they were all in on draws?

after the turn gets checked thru i doubt anyone is gonna fold a pair to a river bet...

MoreWineII · #5 04-20-2005, 06:08 PM

You know what, I still bet. After re-reading the hand again a couple of times, I think you take down this pot often enough with a river bet to make it profitable. The chance of you getting raised is like nil, and if by some bizarre alignment of the stars you do get raised you have the easiest fold ever.

gaming_mouse · #6 04-20-2005, 06:10 PM

I think it's highly unlikely that no one has a pair. And after that turn action, I think even rocks are calling with any pair they've got. I like c/fold.

ckessel · #7 04-20-2005, 06:13 PM

Seems like you're probably up against middling pockets (UTG+2 has that smell in particular) and if they haven't folded by now I don't see them folding the river to someone who check through the turn.

Catt · #8 04-20-2005, 06:15 PM

Does "predictable" mean he won't bet the river without a pair? Does "reasonable" mean the same thing for the other guy?

I think I might check and call one from UTG+2, but wouldn't overcall, and wouldn't call one back from either of the other two players if your reads mean what I hypothesized (or close to it) above. So c/f to anything but one back from the unknown. But my river play sucks.

vegasvegas · #9 04-20-2005, 06:24 PM

I'd vote for c/f, too. MP1 bought a free card for his straight or flush draw, but I doubt that all three are on draws. If it was just BB and MP1, I might bet here.

cold_cash · #10 04-20-2005, 06:29 PM

I'm not so sure you're not winning.

I think there's a reasonable chance that you have the best hand, but it's unlikely a better hand will fold after the turn action. It's also unlikely a worse hand will call if you bet.

I would check and expect to win a decent amount of the time if it's checked through. Given your reads I don't think you can call a bet though.