($215 custer) strange bubble play

[Custer]

I don't remember the actual hand, but there are many factors more important to me than my hand or dry ICM #'s. But let's look at those #'s: With L calling ranges from all opponents, EV Diff. is -1.8%. But SNGPT doesn't take into account position. I'm in the BB next hand, the SB after that. Both -EV positions. Sure, I'll be in those same positions the next 2 hands regardless of whether or not I push here, but the chips I'll likely be losing will have less value than if I add 450 to my stack. How much less value, I'm really not sure, but it doesn't seem like it has to be much to make up for -1.8%. So any extenuating factors would turn this into a push in my mind.

Example of extenuating circumstance: The big stack is a calling machine. He's on my left. This will severely hurt the EV of all future pushes, SB pushes in particular. Not only does this make UTG pushes the best (as it will limit Big Stack's calling range), but when I fold here, I am counting on these +EV pushes to keep me in the tournament. The fact that they are less +EV seems to make pushing here a better play, as I have to find some way to gamble my chips.

moses