Spot the bluff...

[meep_42]

I think I hang onto some weak-ish hands a bit too much to turn aggression, but in going over some recent HHs, I have found little rhyme or reason to which are bluffs and which are not, barring any significant reads.

Here are two hands, both pretty similar. One of the opponents is bluffing, one is not. What criteria would you use (board, your hand strength, position, pf play, etc) to determine which to call down and which to fold?

2nd hand, no reads.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP1 folds, CO folds.

Turn: (3 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>...
-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Also 2nd hand, no reads. (really, it was.)

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>...

-d

[toss]

The second hand.

In hand one BB with flopped trips wanted callers, but didn't get any so he raised the turn.

In the second hand UTG would probably bet out with a pair of 8s in an unraised pot.

[QTip]

no reads huh...that sucks.

Anyway, I'd probably go with the 2nd but not the 1st. The 1st hand it looks like BB probably has something strong...probably a 9. On the flop,he doesn't want to chase anyone away planning on popping the turn.

That's my 2 cents devalued to a Turkish Lyra.

[bozlax]

I'm going to say Hand 2 is more likely to be the bluff. First, there's an ace on the board, and I've seen a lot of players raise the turn based on the flop scare card(s). Second, the Villan in Hand 2 VPIP'd...I think BB in Hand 1 is more likely to have said, "Whoa. Lookit those trip 9s that just fell in my lap."

[hmkpoker]

I would say the second hand is the bluff.

An opponent with a good nine in the first hand might be wise to overcall, THEN raise the turn, and it is unlikely that the turn helped him.

The second opponent is raising on a scare card.

[shant]

I'm gonna say Hand 1. These are boards you're more likely to be bluffed on, as your opponent will think it is less likely you've hit anything, and that you're afraid of the 9. He may have a weaker 8 and was waiting to raise as a bluff, or he maybe even have overs or smaller pairs. I call that one down.

Hand 2 is a rougher board for your opponent to bluff. He has to know you have an A, and most players won't lay down top pair to the checkraise. Unless he has a read on you as a strong player who makes good laydowns, he is getting called down by most opponents and needs to have an 8 or better A to make this play.

So, I say Hand 1 is the bluff.

[gasoltub]

[ QUOTE ]
He has to know you have an A, and most players won't lay down top pair to the checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does he "has to know" about the A? Hero bet out last after everyone checked. That doesn't really cut in stone that he has an A.
That's the kind of situation where BB could really raise with a good 8 since it's even fairly unlikely that anyone has an A at this point.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has to know you have an A, and most players won't lay down top pair to the checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does he "has to know" about the A? Hero bet out last after everyone checked. That doesn't really cut in stone that he has an A.
That's the kind of situation where BB could really raise with a good 8 since it's even fairly unlikely that anyone has an A at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]
My thinking is coming at this from the mind of a typical opponent, not good players. An ace has to be in the range of hands this typical opponent can put the Hero on. Also, I think the times a typical Party player checkraises an 8 on this flop are low.

[IamLeach]

I think hand two is the bluff.
In hand one The raiser wanted more callers and didn't raise so not to scare anyone off.

[gasoltub]

Assuming that it's not a trick question [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I would be inclined to believe that hand 1 is genuine and the second is the bluff.

Hand 1:
BB got in for free so he could have anything. In particular, to make a play like this I would guess he's holding any 9, 94, 44 or remotely possible 88. He could even be holding a strong 8. An overpair is probably not likely since he didn't raise preflop.
On the flop he doesn't want to shut out the other two by raising, but they fold anyway. So when the turn was either a brick or helped his hand he goes for a raise.

Hand 2:
If you had a TAG read on UTG it would reduce the likelihood of the 8 helping him.
Hmm... when I think more about this hand it really doesn't feel like a bluff either. If he had bet out direct instead of c/r I would call down and perhaps even raise him.
The more I think about it the less I know [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I guess I timed out on this one. But anyway my final guess is what I said earlier: hand 1 genuine, hand 2 bluff.