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#22
11-11-2005, 01:08 PM
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Re: Quick thoughts, more later
[ QUOTE ]
The dude plays 38% of his hands. You have to relax logical hand-reading against people who play 38% of their hands. Call the river. . . [/ QUOTE ] Absolutely. I still say he bluffs the river less than 1 outta 10 times. His (preflop alone) aggression numbers don't indicate he's a degenerate bluffer. 
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#23
11-11-2005, 01:12 PM
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Re: Quick thoughts, more later
[ QUOTE ]
So UTG has a set or middle two pair and decided to try and CR the turn even through no one showed they liked that flop? [/ QUOTE ] If it were me (and I play only SLIGHTLY less than 38% of my hands), I'd check the turn not to checkraise (although I would if the opportunity presented itself) but to allow all the drawing dead AK, AQ, AJ, etc catch up. [ QUOTE ] I have a hard time putting UTG on a hand to be honest, but I don't think it really matters because you are ahead of the other two guys enough here given their passiveness throughout the hand. [/ QUOTE ] Sure, I definitely have the other two beat. I was going to checkraise the river if one of those bet. We agree on that. What we DISagree on is the merits of being second best. Saying what UTG has doesn't matter because I can beat the other two is silly. [ QUOTE ] Plus, given the utg's check on the turn I think you have an easy call in a large pot with TPTK. [/ QUOTE ] Yep, if he'll bluff the river over 10% of the time into a field of four. I don't think he will. Josh
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#24
11-11-2005, 01:14 PM
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Re: Quick thoughts, more later
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] UTG (38/14) limps.......Flop comes 962, two hearts.....I lead out. UTG raises.. Turn is an offsuit ten. I check, and it gets checked around. Weird. Maybe UTG has hearts, and I'm really ahead here. [/ QUOTE ] I was trying to do the hands and could only come with 78s for UTG. I could see him playing it the same way and going for turn c/r. Maybe I'm wrong, but 38/14's do things like that. [/ QUOTE ] As I just mentioned in my response to Philuva....a turn check is not necessarily looking to checkraise. It could easily be looking to allow a drawing dead hand (i.e. AK AQ AJ) to 'catch up' on the river. Betting the turn with the nuts (or two pair or set or whatever) will get a lot of these hands to fold, which is disasterous. Josh
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#26
11-11-2005, 01:25 PM
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The flop bet
Like I've said, I'm not going to be a big defender of the flop bet. But like the bet or not, I don't think anybody here will say it's horrible (at least not anybody who's EV conscious). As such, I hope it doesn't become too much of a distraction.
When I called preflop, I gave some merits to capping. Instead, I called, with the express purpose of being able to beat AK on a raggedy board. By calling preflop, I've disguised my hand somewhat (not a ton, but...). On a raggedy flop, I can take this pot away from AK because he'll think "oh, he's in the blind, he's likely got some of that". Or, on an ace high flop, if the other guys have AQ etc, I can bludgeon them with my kicker, which they won't suspect. So I just call preflop. Now, here I am on a raggedy flop. It's unlikely HJ has me beat right now. About the only hand a reasonable HJ will have here that beats me is TT. He likely caps JJ or bigger, and likely doesn't have a 9, 6, or 2 in his hand. So I bet the flop for value vs. HJ. The button very likely has a pair. Given HJ raised and I have AK, if the button has a pair, it's most likely to be smaller than kings, so I have 6 outs (5, if an A or K is in HJs hand). By betting into the button here, I won't have to call an unimproved river vs. him, I'll be able to find out where I'm at. The bet I'm losing here will be saved later. The question is with UTG. He plays a lot of hands. However, most of his hands won't hit that flop. Lots of QJ, KT, A5 type hands will now muck, which is just fine by me. One less opponent in a big pot is sweet. He also may have a small pocket pair, like 44. If he does, he may or may not call, but will be scared somewhat by the potential of a raise behind him. Look, there are a lot of "maybes" "potential" "likely", etc. in this bet. I'm not trying to defend it here, so much as I'm trying to explain it. I could certainly check/call. I could certainly check/raise a button bettor. I could even check/fold. I just wanted to share my thought process here. Even though the flop bet sticks out like a sore thumb, it's somewhat irrelevant, and not really -EV in any way shape or form. Josh
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#27
11-11-2005, 01:30 PM
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Re: Quick thoughts, more later
[ QUOTE ]
Not saying it justifies folding, just saying changing the thinking about what the bettor might have in light of the two calls makes sense. [/ QUOTE ] Excellent point. I don't think I've explicitly thought about this before. Shows how weak my hand reading thought process is. I've still seen too many LAGs make hopeless river bets after the turn is checked around though, despite the number of people in the pot. But I'm assuming mediocre postflop skills. If UTG is a reasonable postflop player, then a fold is in order.
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#29
11-11-2005, 01:36 PM
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Re: The flop bet
[ QUOTE ]
I think you make way too many very specific assumptions about your opponents hands and how they might play them on every street. You just can't ve that certain of how other people play. [/ QUOTE ] You must not have seen this paragraph in the post you just responded to: [ QUOTE ] Look, there are a lot of "maybes" "potential" "likely", etc. in this bet. I'm not trying to defend it here, so much as I'm trying to explain it. I could certainly check/call. I could certainly check/raise a button bettor. I could even check/fold. [/ QUOTE ] Josh
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#30
11-11-2005, 01:37 PM
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Re: Quick thoughts, more later
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The dude plays 38% of his hands. You have to relax logical hand-reading against people who play 38% of their hands. Call the river. . . [/ QUOTE ] Absolutely. I still say he bluffs the river less than 1 outta 10 times. His (preflop alone) aggression numbers don't indicate he's a degenerate bluffer. [/ QUOTE ] This sounds like you think this but don't know for sure because you haven't played enough hands with UTG. And I think you need to have played thousands online against him to make this laydown. Also, you're getting ~13:1 so if he is bluffing 1 out of 10 times you have odds to call. [EDIT: Well I guess button has AK 50% of the time and AQ 50% of the time. But if UTG has Ahxh say 2 out of those 10 times then your odds are 7:3 and the pot is offering 13-1. Even with the chop half the time that you win- I think you have odds to call. Not to mention if you are wrong in your read.] You also said above, "Nobody can put UTG on a hand." Sure we can. Monster: set or straight that didn't want to lose anybody on the turn or was going to CR. Two pair: A9 specifically, maybe A6 or A2 that got scared on the turn. Hand you beat: Ahxh or a complete whiff Button has an ace. MP - no idea, but I don't care because he didn't raise. You also wrote above [ QUOTE ] It's pretty clear that HJ and Button both have big aces, and there's probably about 25% chance I'm chopping at best with button. [/ QUOTE ] What do you mean at best? Do you mean at worst? Because the button and hijack have you beat about 1% of the time here. [Edit to state I don't know what UTG but I think UTG won because Josh posted this hand]Now since you posted UTG probably had you beat this time but it seems to go back to basics. I'm not making big folds in big pots on the river without 98-99% certainty of my read. If you were 99% certain then I think you need to state that - maybe you did and I didn't see it though. If you were 99% certain of your read then it was a good play win or lose. But if you were 99% certain and you folded and would have ended up winning then it's more likely that you (and by you I mean anybody) overrated your handle on the opponent -- than it was that 1%. Thanks for posting a hand you probably knew you would get flamed for....it's always good to expand our viewpoints right or wrong, imo. And if you think I'm wrong let me know where.
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