raising the flop for value - countings outs exercise

Borno · #1 08-24-2005, 11:20 AM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, Button calls.

River: (9.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, Button folds.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

jrz1972 · #2 08-24-2005, 11:28 AM

Not good.

A good estimate of your outs is that you have 4 for the gutshot, 1.5 for the bdfd, and 1.5 for the overcard = 7 outs. This makes you about a 6:1 underdog. At the point where you raised, you had only 3 opponents, so your raise isn't even close to being for value.

(It's a little more complicated than I made it sound like above, because you get two chances to hit your gutshot and/or overcard. Then again, the turn card may well spoil your bdfd, and I'm not sure your overcard is really worth 1.5 outs. Technicalities aside, this hand is clearly worth a call, but not a raise).

Borno · #3 08-24-2005, 11:31 AM

ahh [censored], right right. I'm awful. Holy [censored] I have a lot of work to do.

Thanks man!

bozlax · #4 08-24-2005, 11:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
A good estimate of your outs is that you have 4 for the gutshot, 1.5 for the bdfd, and 1.5 for the overcard = 7 outs. This makes you about a 6:1 underdog. At the point where you raised, you had only 3 opponents, so your raise isn't even close to being for value.

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This is not to say that this might not be a good raise, as a semi-bluff. It's just not good if you think you're raising for value.

Fantam · #5 08-24-2005, 11:46 AM

I estimate your outs on the flop as 4 for the gut-shot, 1.5 for the backoor nut flush draw, and perhaps 1.5 for the A overcard. That was certainly enough to call the flop bet with 8 sb in the pot.

However, I am not sure that you should include the 1.5 outs for the A overcard in your calculation to determine whether you can raise this flop for value. Thats because if you pair your A, you could still lose the hand.

Anyway if you consider 5.5 outs for your gut-shot and BDFD on the flop, then I calculate that you would need 5 opponents to call to be able to bet the flop for value. (I wont bother you with the maths.)

So I think you were short of about 2 opponents on the flop to be able to raise your hand for value.

Nonetheless, nice hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

krimson · #6 08-24-2005, 11:52 AM

I'm not sure I would even give 1.5 outs to the ace. In SSHE when they suggest to give 1.5 outs to overcards it's when we have strong overcards such as AK, AQ, etc, in which we expect the ace to be strong if not behind something like two-pair. In this case, we can hit our ace, still be behind two-pair and also be behind a bigger ace. I would maybe discount as far as it just being 1 out. Not that it really matters in this discussion.

#7 08-24-2005, 12:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
However, I am not sure that you should include the 1.5 outs for the A overcard in your calculation to determine whether you can raise this flop for value. Thats because if you pair your A, you could still lose the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
But isn't that why you only count them as 1.5 in the first place? If you ignore them completely you are effectively saying that there is 0% chance of winning if an A turns up.

numeri · #8 08-24-2005, 12:11 PM

Another concern is that our GSD is not a draw to the nut straight. In fact, it's not even a draw to the 2nd nut straight. (Though admittedly 63 is a pretty unlikely hand. 76, on the other hand, is not.)

WSOP Bound · #9 08-24-2005, 12:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However, I am not sure that you should include the 1.5 outs for the A overcard in your calculation to determine whether you can raise this flop for value. Thats because if you pair your A, you could still lose the hand.

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But isn't that why you only count them as 1.5 in the first place? If you ignore them completely you are effectively saying that there is 0% chance of winning if an A turns up.

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Agreed. We discount them from 3 to 1.5 because they might not win the hand for us. Wether or not 1.5 is low enough is an entirely seperate question, personally I don't think we win this with an A often enough to count even 1.5.

So many opponents will play literaly any Ace to the river. There is no lower Ace that we can beat in this hand. I'd say about 1 or maybe even .5 sounds more like right to me. But there is certainly a non-zero chance that an Ace will make us a winner, so we have to count something.

numeri · #10 08-24-2005, 12:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So many opponents will play literaly any Ace to the river. There is no lower Ace that we can beat in this hand. I'd say about 1 or maybe even .5 sounds more like right to me. But there is certainly a non-zero chance that an Ace will make us a winner, so we have to count something.

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I totally agree. I'd feel obliged to call when an A hit, but I'm certainly not confident enough to raise.