blind war w/ two great players

[1800GAMBLER]

Eff my post above, this explains it better. Dcfir, would you check behind top set because your opponent had perfect bluffing frequency? If not, at what point do you draw the line?

[1800GAMBLER]

Now i just feel like typing a lot rather than writing my personal statement for university. Here's something out of my notes file that i writen to correct my own thinking when i found poker interesting. It's note form so it's difficult to follow. Hand ranges aren't realistic, they are made up to help for theory reasons.

PokerStars Game #1565620861: Hold'em Limit ($100/$200) - 2005/04/22 - 12:54:48 (ET)
Table 'Aralia' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: JayP ($8685 in chips)
Seat 2: bacplayer ($3461.50 in chips)
Seat 3: magicpitch ($7840.50 in chips)
Seat 4: PottedPlant ($4755 in chips)
Seat 5: Exclusive ($16571 in chips)
Seat 7: The Cooker ($4226 in chips)
Seat 9: #10 PELE ($3986 in chips)
Seat 10: dbocean ($2314.50 in chips)
Exclusive: posts small blind $50
The Cooker: posts big blind $100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JayP [5c 6h]
#10 PELE: folds
dbocean: raises $100 to $200 with A8s
JayP: folds
bacplayer: folds
magicpitch: folds
PottedPlant: folds
#10 PELE leaves the table
Exclusive: raises $100 to $300
The Cooker: folds
dbocean: calls $100
*** FLOP *** [Tc Jh As]
Exclusive: bets $100

Exclusive range: TT JJ AA AK AQ AJ = 9 + 24 + 9 = 42; KK QQ = 12. 42:12 7:2 loss:win rato; pot odds: 7:1.

KK QQ = 6 outs over 2 cards; 4:1 to improve to a better hand with KK QQ thus lowering our win % => 3/4 * 12 = 9. => 42:9 5:1.

So given we are getting 7:1 pot odds and we will win the hand 5:1 we should call

However 5:1 is our current pot odds, not our showdown pot odds. Yet if he has KK QQ we may be able to showdown getting 7:1 Meaning he will check both the turn and river with KK QQ, in that case we should call.

Yet, that's not very realistic, it's pretty rare to be in the hand against someone who you will know will check KK QQ on the turn; esp. in this hand.

So lets say we can assume 75% players check KK QQ on the turn here and 25% bet and we have no idea which group of players he hits into.

So this now makes it 75% of him having KK QQ (and not improving) we showdown for 7:1 yet 25% we may showdown for 9:3 or 3:1, which averages at 7 + 7 + 7 + 3 / 4 = 6, or 6:1. Meaning we get 6:1 showdown odds in a hand we'll win 5:1, thus we should call.

Ok, so just hightlighting the obvious, the higher the percentage of players who will bet KK QQ on the the higher our showdown cost and thus less profit.

i.e. if the player would always bet KK QQ on the turn our showdown cost vs KK QQ would be 3:1 and thus we would have to fold the flop.

So, anyone else noticing how crazy this is? The logic here is, because a player is now more likely to bet a hand that we are beating we now have to fold!

Well, imagine these two players were bots, we'll call the player with A8s Bot1 and the player with the range of hands Bot2. Imagine these bots are programmed to play against each other and they knew perfect each others hand range at all times, Bot2 knows Bot1 has Alittle, Bot1 in case 1. knows Bot2 will always check KK QQ on the turn and thus he can call the flop bet and get value on his Alittle yet in case 2. bot1 knows bot2 will always bet KK QQ and thus he can no longer call on the flop with Alittle because of the increased showdown cost.

So perfect strategy for bot2 would be to a high % of the time bet KK QQ on the turn so Alittle gets no value against him, the reason this works is because Bot2 has

HUGE protection on KK QQ because of the other hands in his hand group, TT JJ AA AK AQ AJ.

Perfect shania here is betting KK QQ against a players Alittle.

dbocean: calls $100
*** TURN *** [Tc Jh As] [3d]
Exclusive: bets $200


dbocean: calls $200
*** RIVER *** [Tc Jh As 3d] [2h]
Exclusive: bets $200
dbocean: calls $200
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Exclusive: shows [Ad Qd] (a pair of Aces)
dbocean: mucks hand
Exclusive collected $1697 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1700 | Rake $3
Board [Tc Jh As 3d 2h]
Seat 1: JayP folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: bacplayer folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: magicpitch folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: PottedPlant (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Exclusive (small blind) showed [Ad Qd] and won ($1697) with a pair of Aces
Seat 7: The Cooker (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: #10 PELE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: dbocean mucked [5h Ac]

[jgorham]

Great post Jay, but how is it impacted if exlusive will also check behind in the turn with AK-AQ (say 1 time in 8)? I realize it isn't very likely given the board, but is definitely relevant to the OP's hand.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
69, 67, 65 etc are few whiffs that P2 can have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mightn't he bet the turn with those hands pretty often?

[/ QUOTE ]

not when the c'r frequency from hands that call a flop raise are pretty high.

-Barron

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate this "great players" bs. everyone is an effing GREAT PLAYER. NO. just say they both play well. i think p2 should bet the turn (DUH.), but the check is ok... p1s river call is absolutely awful... no effing way in a million years is K high is good in that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not a great player. Bicyclekick is a great player. A dick, but a great player.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
69, 67, 65 etc are few whiffs that P2 can have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mightn't he bet the turn with those hands pretty often?

[/ QUOTE ]

not when the c'r frequency from hands that call a flop raise are pretty high.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

With a semibluffing hand that weak, I think a bet wins you the pot *far* more often then you get check-raised and also wind up folding the winner.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I was on semi-tilt and quit about 5 minutes after this hand. The river call is aweful and I know it and I quit partly because of it. The hand was between schneids and I and dcifrths didn't know I was not playing my A game and this hand isn't very interesting IMO from my point of view. I just played it badly and that's all there is to it.

You know when you're getting beat up and everything is going wrong? You think everyone is putting moves on you. I had tunnel vision vs mike and I paid 200 bucks for it. I had dropped about 70bb at that table before this hand came up and sealed the deal. I quit for the day.

Mike should bet the turn, too. I don't HATE his check, but he really should be betting here IMO. I guess it did throw me for a loop though, cause he doesn't do that very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

mike talked to me about the hand and didn't mention you're state of mind and i found it interesting that a) he checked the turn and b) you called the river.

the turn check though is what is usually a bet for me like 100% of the time...but the arguments for checking are pretty convincing IF you are putting him to the test by c'ring him correctly on the turn making his decision virtually neutral.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
69, 67, 65 etc are few whiffs that P2 can have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mightn't he bet the turn with those hands pretty often?

[/ QUOTE ]

not when the c'r frequency from hands that call a flop raise are pretty high.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

With a semibluffing hand that weak, I think a bet wins you the pot *far* more often then you get check-raised and also wind up folding the winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

very true betting there will fold out the winner a lot.

-Barron

[PokerBob]

I don't mind the turn check, as p1 is a sneaky prick who couldy easliy be winding up to c/r that turn, and such a move would make p2 puke. The river bet is standard IMO.

And I don't get this river call at all. time to give up.

[DcifrThs]

jay,

thanks for taking the time to point that out. your second post clears it up.

-Barron