88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i'm a calling station.

[2005]

[ QUOTE ]
pf: i usually minraise this considering you are still pretty deep, and are playing this for set instead of showdown value.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is the case, why would you min-raise? If you're playing for set value, you want as many people in there as possible, and though it seems ridiculous, some people will fold a hand for a min raise that they would have called if it was for just a limp.

[mlagoo]

well i just dont know about all this.

i think villian played this hand just like 66-TT, Jx would. barring a specific read, i think my default line here is to check/fold or bet/fold the turn. i guess i just dont see villian having 66-88 enough here to make calling down profitable.

also, i think i normally CB this flop. there really aren't THAT many people in the hand with you ... and this is a totally innocent flop. barring a CB, on this board, I would do a check-call flop-bet turn-shutdown river line. its kind of predictable, but i mean its a stars $20 tourney, fancy play probably isnt all that necessary.

this is a really disorganized post. i need to work on that.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]

reason i just called on the turn was hoping he would do this on the river, so i call. But now i'm thinking that he's probably bluffing less than 50% of the time here so i probably should have just taken the pot on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesnt really make sense to me. If you were hoping he would bet the river (on the turn) why does the T scare you?

So the T helps him X% of the time. Do you really think it is often enough that you could have 'taken the pot on the turn'? The hands that he isnt bluffing with on the river are close to the same as the hands he wont be pushed off on the turn. Sure AT, KT, may improve, but I dont see them as much of his range here.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesnt really make sense to me. If you were hoping he would bet the river (on the turn) why does the T scare you?

So the T helps him X% of the time. Do you really think it is often enough that you could have 'taken the pot on the turn'? The hands that he isnt bluffing with on the river are close to the same as the hands he wont be pushed off on the turn. Sure AT, KT, may improve, but I dont see them as much of his range here.


[/ QUOTE ]

The T didn't scare me specifically, just now that i look back at the hand, i dont think he bets here often enough (without a hand) to make it more profitable than c/r the turn. If i'm letting him see the river for free/cheap, it should be either because i'm trying for a cheap showdown, or i think he'll bluff at it, and neither seems to be true in this hand.


---

Anyways, i still dunno what i think of this, Villain in the hand had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . For a a pair of 3's. I think if i did it again i'd have c/r the turn, but i like it up until there. And if it was a situation where it hought he'd bluff more often on the river, i'd call the turn, to call any river bet.

[locutus2002]

I'd lead the flop. Against so many players it is unlikely that hero would check the flop if he held a jack. Once hero checks, his hand becomes very vulnerable OOP. Villain's 1/2 pot bet into a 4-way pot looks fishy, I might consider c/r to T1800 if I had a read on him as a joker.

The turn was very lucky for you. Hero would probably have to give up on many turns. I'd push the turn.
My guess is that hero is behind against villain's range slightly.
~30 ways good jack
~30 ways good overs
Villain is ahead slightly more pairs than hero is ahead.

In spite of this, I'm calling 100% of the time on the river after the turn, given the overlay in the pot.

Villain's 15% equity when hero is ahead is substantial because of the implied odds.

Pushing the turn is also consistent with a variety of holdings for hero.

I don't like villain's line. I prefer checking behind (preferable because WA/WB) or push the turn. His 1K bet is supposed to look like a milking bet for a jack which is now much less likely and the 1K bet commits him to the pot. He probably makes a slightly EV- call here against a c/push by hero.

After the river, I call with incredulity and curse the poker gods.

[DeuceKicker]

I don't think you played this like a deep-stack-poker hand (not that I'm an authority). What's the point of having 50BB if on the turn you're considering a check-push, but opt instead to call the anticipated river push from villain?

I realize that the number of callers changed the dynamic of the hand quite a bit. Was this normal for this table?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain's 15% equity when hero is ahead is substantial because of the implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really, the pot is double his stack. When he hits, we would gladly give him the rest of our stack for the money in the pot. So, the immediate odds are the worry here. The pot is offering both players 2-1, add in another stack and its goes to 3-1, not really enough to change how that many hands are played.

[locutus2002]

The pot is T2500 at the turn.

villain stands to win 15% of T5500 if we check/call the river or ~T825. This is the equity we give up by checking the turn against two overs. We give up this equity for the case when villain bluffs when he is behind, which should be pretty slim, even though this was the case and villain made a mini-bluff at the turn, and a mini-bluff on the river.

IMO villain should have checked behind on the turn or pushed putting a really difficult decision to hero, and the amount of times he bluffs/pushes is not enough to justify hero checking the turn and giving a free card IMO. Given the fact that neither side is likely to have the jack, villain should be content with the equity that hero is giving him (free card) and check behind.

In my line I'd expect villain to call most of the hands that are ahead, and many of the hands that are behind.

[A_PLUS]

You dont think Villan bluffs the turn? There are plenty of potential hands that bet this without thinking they are bluffing. It really doesnt look like we have a J. So, I think he bets any PP, AX KX with a pair, and a lot of over cards. If he checks behind, that is fine. We prefer this pot small anyway

[locutus2002]

IF villain bets the turn he should push not mini-bluff.

From villain's point of view, hero probably has a midpair or overs. Villain is behind. (Note that from both players point of view they are behind) The number of jacks that villain can represent dropped by 50%. Hero is probably committed to the pot with a mid pair. I'd say villains FE just dropped dramatically, and he should check behind and expect hero to check on the river.