Tricky Hand for HUSH Final Days

[Danenania]

SB is unknown. Button is 35/25/1.5ish 4-6 handed and plays pretty sensibly postflop. My flop plan was to call the flop then raise most turns if Button didn't raise behind me. Turn call probably isn't too great eh? Odds are there but lots of raising danger behind me and potentially tainted outs. Tell me what y'all think.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (14 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 17 BB

[baronzeus]

interesting...i think raising the flop isnt bad, but other than that i cant see myself playing it differently, except for calling the river.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting...i think raising the flop isnt bad, but other than that i cant see myself playing it differently, except for calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

These were my thoughts as well. I think waiting for the turn is interesting here...my default is to raise the flop, though, since I can be confident i'm behind if the pfr 3bets over a bet and a raise and release on the turn UI.

Surf

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting...i think raising the flop isnt bad, but other than that i cant see myself playing it differently, except for calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems people are somewhat divided on a turn call. I think I probably should have folded but it certainly has to be close. Figuring out the EV of a call vs. fold would be a pretty difficult analysis.

[Spicymoose]

I like raising the flop, as it will put a ton of pressure on button to fold his overcards, even though he probably has odds to call (as long as he doesn't have a king).

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
I like raising the flop, as it will put a ton of pressure on button to fold his overcards, even though he probably has odds to call (as long as he doesn't have a king).

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple points about the reasoning behind my flop call.

1.) Making overcards fold. Which overcards am I worried about? Which can I make fold on the flop? KQ/KJ with 7 outs against me are going nowehere on the flop but will most likely fold to a turn raise. AK only has 3 outs against me so I'm not too worried about letting that see a turn card especially when it's so obvious that he's improved with it. AQ is more of a problem with the 6 outs + backdoor but is AQ alone worth foregoing the chance to make KQ/KJ fold? Not sure but I'm sure it seems close.

2.) Information: calling clearly allows me to gauge the strength of each opponent's hand and I can fold easily for two bets if button raises and SB reraises behind him. If I raise and one of the two 3-bets behind me I will be roped into continuing with no idea how live my outs are. Improving on the turn could be a reverse implied odds nightmare.

3.) I think it's reasonable to say that when SB donks the flop his most likely hands are some kind of very strong hand or some kind of draw or weak bluff. So raising a decent turn card and taking free SD is the most effective way to see a SD against HIS range.

[Stefan_K]

i dont like the turn call, the jack is not a good card i think you are often behind here

I dont know if you can fold this river. Imo button can have a high pp or J10s often enough to make a call profitable. You are after all getting 17:1.

[The Truth]

If I dont raise the flop;

I fold to SB's turn donk bet. It's close odds wise; you are getting 9-1 and you have what? 4-7 clean outs? I think its a reverse implied odds nightmare. Plus chance of raise behind you.

blake

[flawless_victory]

i raise the flop... given your flop play, turn call (first one) looks ugly.
other streets are fine.