How Much Do You Bet to Balance Implied & Pot Odds?

[GrunchCan]

I thought I knew the answer to this, but now I'm not so sure.

Here's a simple example, in 2 parts. First part now, second part later.

Party 100NL. Everyone has 100.

You are dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the CO. Everyone folds to you, you rasie to 4. Button calls, blinds fold.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players for 9.50)

Your opponent shows you that he has 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

How much do you bet?

Exactly as much as he is willing to call, and at least enough to make him call for more than 1/4 of the pot.

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Exactly as much as he is willing to call, and at least enough to make him call for more than 1/4 of the pot.

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I bet you get a lot of suckouts...Why would you bet to give him great odds on his flush if you can bet big and hope he is some dumb online gambler? I think you make way more money this way...I like to take the hand while im ahead. Thats the whole reason you raise preflop right? I get plenty of people calling huge bets with flush draws. I cant stand all of these players complaining about how guys can never let go of flushes and they always suckout...blah blah blah...stop giving the guy close odds, the average player calls at least 2/3 of the pot every time on the flop with a flush draw anyway.

[Ghazban]

The maximum he will incorrectly call. If he will only call getting correct odds to draw, you bet $.01 more than that if you want to win now or exactly that amount if you want to gamble.

[GrunchCan]

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The maximum he will incorrectly call.

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This is intuitively correct, but how much is 'incorrect'? For example, if we were to bet 1/3 pot on the flop, the opponent is getting 1:4. He would be incorrect to call this by virtue of expressed pot odds. But if we were planning to bet 1/3 pot again on a non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn, then he would be correct to call the flop bet based on implied pot odds. We bet 3 on the flop, he calls. On the turn the pot is (9.5+3+3) 15.5. Non-heart turn falls. We bet 5, he calls. River is (15.5+10) 25.5. Heart comes on river. The opponent has paid in a total of 8 to win 25.5, which is a little better than 1:3 implied odds. Since he was a 1:2.5 dog to make his flush in 2 cards, he's a long-term winner calling these bets.

Isn't he? So betting 1/3 pot on both flop & turn can't be right?

So I guess my question is, how much would he be incorrect to call based on implied odds?

[Ghazban]

Well, in your example, he has no implied odds because we most certainly will not pay off the flush (as he turned his cards over and we know he has it).

[foldem]

he paid 8 to win 17.5.

Edit: link to similar thread

[kingofswing]

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The maximum he will incorrectly call.

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This is intuitively correct, but how much is 'incorrect'? For example, if we were to bet 1/3 pot on the flop, the opponent is getting 1:4. He would be incorrect to call this by virtue of expressed pot odds. But if we were planning to bet 1/3 pot again on a non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn, then he would be correct to call the flop bet based on implied pot odds. We bet 3 on the flop, he calls. On the turn the pot is (9.5+3+3) 15.5. Non-heart turn falls. We bet 5, he calls. River is (15.5+10) 25.5. Heart comes on river. The opponent has paid in a total of 8 to win 25.5, which is a little better than 1:3 implied odds. Since he was a 1:2.5 dog to make his flush in 2 cards, he's a long-term winner calling these bets.

Isn't he? So betting 1/3 pot on both flop & turn can't be right?

So I guess my question is, how much would he be incorrect to call based on implied odds?

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You're right because he's 4.1:1 to make it with one card and better than 2.5:1 to hit it with two cards. So the result is that betting 1/3 pot each time, giving him 4:1 in each case, is a bad play. The answer to your question is less math and more instinct -- basically poker and it's finest.

You should bet into the pot so that he does not have odds to call. As much as he will call is right, but there's more.

Now the decision is on him and he is CORRECT to call so long as he believes that he has implied odds. For instance, if a pot were 'X' and you bet 'X', obviously he doesn't have the odds to call that, but if he concludes that if he hits his flush he can get you to call a '4X' bet, well the implied odds are great. It's +EV for him.

Now the decision is essentially back to you, because if that flush card comes you have to figure out whether he has that or is bluffing a flush with middle pair.

If he knew you would lay down every time another heart came, then obviously he has no implied odds, but the reality is that often in a multiway pot calling a pot sized bet with a flush draw is wrong for pot odds, but implied odds make it okay because if you hit your flush you only have to get each person in the pot to pay off a smaller bet to make it +EV.

No one lays down TPTK every time a flush card comes because not everyone is on a flush draw, so there are always some implied odds. The flush drawer just needs to decide whether you will fold a 3 flush board or see the hand through. And the guessing begins...

Your opponent shows you 37h?? how does he do that?... I bet the pot. If he chases, he has bad odds. You need to think of these hands as a long term kinda thing. If you play it this way 1000 times and he calls you every time, you make a lot of money with about 67% odds right? Plus you can bet the pot again on the turn if he doesnt hit, then he should really fold, if he doesnt, then you get great odds for a big pot and if he folds, he called a pot sized bet on the flop just to try to make the flush with 1 card.

[GrunchCan]

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Your opponent shows you 37h?? how does he do that?

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This is a hypothetical exercise.