Bottom two pair, I raise all-in on the river

Riposte · #1 09-24-2005, 05:24 AM

Good? Bad? Ugly?

EDIT: I forgot to mention this guy was really loose. Like 50/10.

EDIT2: Well damn, looked at his PT stats, they were 32/11... thought it was worse, oh well.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) converter

Hero ($53.85)
UTG ($47.60)
Button ($75.55)
SB ($48.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $2.5, UTG folds, SB calls $1.50.

Turn: ($6.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB calls $6.

River: ($18.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero raises to $44.85, SB calls $29.95 (All-In).

Final Pot: $103.30

Jimbio · #2 09-24-2005, 05:38 AM

i'd just call.

If you raise here, it's a bluff. I dont see a worse hand calling.
A worse 2-pair might call, but then you're lucky [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#3 09-24-2005, 07:23 AM

Your re-raise on the river is suicide.

The key to playing this hand correctly is to first determine what the SB THINKS that YOU have.

I will ASSUME that SB is not an idiot, and he ASSUMES that neither are you. ALSO: NO-LIMIT!

When you re-raised the flop - SB can probably put you on 93,96,63. Likely 99 raises pre-flop, and other trip hands - 66,33,AA would just call the flop bet to give UTG a chance to contribute. It would not make much sense for you to reraise with 54 here, since you would want UTG to come with.
Does SB think you are making a move on him? NO - your re-raise on the flop will not be interpreted as a future takeaway since the flop has limited potential scare, and UTG is still a factor.

You could have 9x (non-ace) and be re-raising to knock out UTG and shut down future betting from SB with a 9x as well. But when you bet again on the turn - this possibility is not very likely. This is important since after your turn bet - SB can now expect a bluff attempt at the river to be called.

So the hands that the SB can put you on after the turn betting are A9, 93, 96, 63,and weakly played AA,99,66,33. Very easy, very limited.

Now the river brings and A.

The absolute minimum holding for you is 2pair from SB's perspective.

So when SB bets into you at the river - what does he have?

Would he bet with 63 given the possibility of you holding 93 or better? Not likely.

If SB is not bluffing - you are beat. This is obvious since he can so easily put you on your hand. A non-bluff bet by SB could be from A9, 33, 66, or even AA. Even if SB played poorly (not-likely), and ended up being rewarded with the straight (52,57) his hand has you beat, and he knows it.

The only legit hand that you can beat is (6,3) - a hand he would not likely bet given the situation.

Could SB be bluffing here?

SB would have to be a moron to think you have a hand that you are going to lay down to a $10 bet. As shown earlier - he can pretty much be certain that you have at the very worst - one of four possible 2 pair hands. This is not the time for a bluff, and HE KNOWS IT! You may call with the worst hand, but you WILL call.

So the river bet is not a bluff (from a reasonable player). The only chance for a bluff from SB to work would be a check-raise all-in, and that is not what he is doing here.

It might look crazy, but to LAY DOWN the 93 here would save you $10.

There really aren't ANY hands that your 93 can expect to beat here.

Muck it and move on.

Riposte · #4 09-24-2005, 07:41 AM

Great post, thanks man.

#5 09-24-2005, 07:47 AM

Having said all that - I need to ask a question.

Should I bet against you telling us that SB also had 93?

The ONLY hand that he "might" INCORRECTLY bet that does not cost you for that river reraise.

LOL.

Riposte · #6 09-24-2005, 08:05 AM

I'm just stupid, that's all.

He had A9.

#7 09-24-2005, 12:01 PM

I would also add to ziggling's thorough post that if Villain is bluffing, there's no value in raising. If he's on a total bluff just call him; he'll likely fold to a raise and call with a better hand. I just don't see any value in raising the river here.

Also, the ace is the worst possible card for you. You see people all the time in this situation calling down with second or third pair with ace kicker. And with his bet and call of your raise on the flop, it kind of looks like TPTK to me, especially after he bets out the river. Having said that, he could also have something dumb like A-Q and just be too stubborn to let go of it. then he hits his ace, got hard, and bet out thinking it was good. So I probably call thinking that I'm likely beat. But I would never raise this.