Application of the overbet?

[Isura]

Villain is 30/4 and passive postflop. How much should X be?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($120.60)</font>
SB ($115.35)
BB ($69)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($202.05)</font>
MP ($94.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($4.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $4, MP folds.

Turn: ($12.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($12.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $X</font>

[Maulik]

I can't see it being more than $15?

Explain the thought process?

[DJ Sensei]

well, the way i see it, the condition for a successful overbet is that it has more value than a standard value bet. To do so, the following should be true:
a) you're very confident in having the best hand
b) your opponent probably will call an overbet often enough to make it worthwhile
-either he's got a very good 2nd best hand, or he's an idiot with a "good" hand

In this hand, condition A is met, but I see no reason that B is. He's shown no strength in the hand so far, and even if he made his flush, he might fold to an overbet on the doublepaired board.

Save the overbet for KK on a KQJTT board, when you know this dude will call with Ax.

[teamdonkey]

my problem with this is, the range of hands your overbet extracts from isn't much bigger than the range of hands you don't want to see. There's still some value to be had here from a small/mid pocket pair, a lone 7, or a flush. Bet small and try to get it.

[aces_dad]

I never seem to get called when I try this on a hand/board like this, so unless shown some indication by villian he's willing to call more I make a more normal value bet size here.

[BigBiceps]

Bet $5, so he will call you with an ace.

He doesn't seem to have anything. Plus if he is a real moron he may raise you with nothing.

[xorbie]

As you not only don't have the nuts but don't even have the 2nd or 3rd nuts, I would recommend betting $5-$8.

[tommo]

[ QUOTE ]
As you not only don't have the nuts but don't even have the 2nd or 3rd nuts, I would recommend betting $5-$8.

[/ QUOTE ]

The arguments I can think of for this move are:

1)The pot isn't that large so an overbet seems like less of a scary thing

2) opponent is very passive, not much fear of him raising here.

3) I often see 30/4 opponents who also don't fold often postflop. It isn't necessarily the case here, but the hand was checked on the turn...perhaps this fish could convince himself you're bluffing.

[xorbie]

At the same time, villain is very likely weak. I think a 7 or 55 or maybe A high calls $8 here but not $20. If I had 67+ here with different action I just push.

[-Skeme-]

His hand does not look strong enough to call a push. Calling a push will most likely get him to fold. Your hand is also not very disguised.