80/160 straight on the turn

[Chris Daddy Cool]

80/160 late night at bay101. game is quite lively and i've just gotten there a couple orbits ago and i've won one pot (without showdown) and haven't done anything lately.

villian in this hand is Vu. those who play this game know him. he's basically a bit too loose preflop but good hand reader and can be very good at times.

i've played with him plenty before, though i don't know if he really "knows" me as i'm not much of a talker in this game.

he opens in the CO. i 3-bet in the sb with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] bb folds. vu calls. hu.

flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

i bet. he calls.

turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

plans?

[krishanleong]

I'd say you have a ton of equity. I've given a range. Please comment if you think I should open it up a bit.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,192 games 0.047 secs 110,468 games/sec

Board: Ad Kd Jd Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 61.2673 % [ 00.45 00.16 ] { AcQh }
Hand 2: 38.7327 % [ 00.23 00.16 ] { TT-66, AQs-A5s, KQs-K8s, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A8o, KQo-KTo, QJo }

I think you basically have to show this down against his range. It's really tough to extract the max without losing 3 BB. I think check-call down is okay. I think bet-call/call is okay if he is capable of raising a 2 pair or straight hand on a 4 flush board. If you wanted to get inventive, you could check-call, bet. My idea is that he might bet the turn on a 2 pair semi-bluff/free showdown.

Krishan

[MarkD]

My initial thought is to check/call this to the river.

Krish provides an actual analysis and reason though. My reasoning is more simplisitc: I may have the best hand here but I can't fold to this guy if he raises me as he could be raising with a worse hand and I'd rather get to the river for 1BB then for 3BB and getting to a showdown for 2BB is just fine with me as I think that gives me the best balance between max'ing and min'ing.

I think the optimal amount of bets to put in would be something like 1.7BB's and I think checking and calling enables you to do that better.

[SrGuapo]

The problem though I see with the PokerStove range is you have to increase the probability weighting of diamonds, do you not? Or do these calculations already incorporate that? i.e. there are many starting hands without diamonds that would have been folded on the flop, many with diamonds that would have seen the turn.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem though I see with the PokerStove range is you have to increase the probability weighting of diamonds, do you not? Or do these calculations already incorporate that? i.e. there are many starting hands without diamonds that would have been folded on the flop, many with diamonds that would have seen the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

No you are correct. We would have to lower the probabilities based on him folding some % of non-diamond hands on the flop. I still think we have to go to showdown against his likely range even with the discount.

Krishan

[MarkD]

I think it is very safe to say that every hand in Krish's range is going to see the turn regardless of whether they contain diamonds or not.

I would further say we can discount the likelihood of diamonds in our opponents hand since he did not put pressure on hero on the flop.

The equity sim is very close I think. The only problem with it is that villian can fold a lot of the hands that we beat but can make us put more chips into the pot when he has us beat. We are certainly in a reverse implied odds situation here.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem though I see with the PokerStove range is you have to increase the probability weighting of diamonds, do you not? Or do these calculations already incorporate that? i.e. there are many starting hands without diamonds that would have been folded on the flop, many with diamonds that would have seen the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

No you are correct. We would have to lower the probabilities based on him folding some % of non-diamond hands on the flop. I still think we have to go to showdown against his likely range even with the discount.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this balances out a bit with the fact that he would have raised some of the hands that contain diamonds / straight draws. I wouldn't be surprised if the two cases sort of cancel each other out. It is much more important to consider the reverse implied odds of the situation when we are behind I think.

No matter what I think your sim shows we have enough equity that a showdown is +EV so let's get there cheaply.

[DiceyPlay]

My thinking would be to do what I would do if I had the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. So check-raise the turn. It would be really hard for him to call the cr without the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or second nut. If he 3-bets, it's safe to fold, isn't it? If it's checked through, he might try a bluff on the river when checked to - so check-call the river in that case. If he only calls the check-raise on the turn, then I don't know what to do - I guess the pot is so big, you have to check-cry-call.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking would be to do what I would do if I had the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. So check-raise the turn. It would be really hard for him to call the cr without the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or second nut. If he 3-bets, it's safe to fold, isn't it? If it's checked through, he might try a bluff on the river when checked to - so check-call the river in that case. If he only calls the check-raise on the turn, then I don't know what to do - I guess the pot is so big, you have to check-cry-call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like the worst way to play the turn.

You get the least money in the pot when your hand is best.

You get teh most money in the pot when your hand is worst.

Yah, this line is bad.

[sthief09]

if he's not tricky, I like a bet. if you aren't sure you can fold to a raise then I like check-call down. you're in good shape against his range right now. unfortunately he always has plenty of outs. there are 9 unseen diamonds, and if he has none, he has 5.5 (9/2 diamonds + 2/2 queens) outs automatically.

the question now is what if he calls? I would probably bet again, as you're less of an underdog. checking there shows a lot of weakness and can let him take it away