88 in trouble

AZK · #1 02-07-2005, 11:45 PM

5/10, I have 1000 behind, 88 in MP, I limp behind someone, button limps, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop come QQ6 (Q spades)

Checked around.

Turn 8 spade
I bet 40, button calls, SB calls

River 9 spade

Now I know that someone has been sitting in the grass just waiting, or finally picked up that gutshot/flush draw on the river so I overbet the pot by about 50 making it look like I just have a Q and I'm trying to take it down.

Button moves in for just over 800, SB calls his all in for 630. Action to you (what the [censored])?

Loci · #2 02-07-2005, 11:55 PM

well... if you lost, I think it's to either 10/J, 5/7, or 7/10 of spades. Can't be QQ because nobody raised preflop, but by getting to fourth street for free, I have to assume that you got busted by a button or small blind limping with 10/J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I think I would have put a bet in on the flop.

etizzle · #3 02-08-2005, 12:06 AM

the only straight flush is JTs

Huskiez · #4 02-08-2005, 12:55 AM

Any reads? This would be extremely helpful in making a decision.

The only likely hands you're losing to are Q9, JTs, and 99. I suppose SB could be in there with Q8 or Q6.

SB's call is a big problem here. Does he have the control to check, and risk winning nothing with those cards? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think Button more often than not has a flush here. If he's a good player, he could have a house. I don't think a bad player would push a house.

I think SB should be sensible enough to at least put Button on a flush. Therefore, SB should only call with hands that beat a flush. In this case, he would need a FH, JTs, or Axs (beats any flush Button has).

I've thought about this for a few minutes, and I think this is really opponent dependent. If you think SB would call here with Axs, then I call. Otherwise I fold, because SB's calling range too often has you beat. The only hand of his you can beat is 66.

Also, if you think Button is a good player, I would lean towards folding as well.

Given absolutely no read, I think I would lean towards call, because I don't respect the play of anyone really unless it's high stakes NL. If this is online, I'd be more reluctant about calling, especially if it's UB.

Live, I think the people there are gambling and don't even think about what the other opponents have. Button could have pushed with a Q and SB called with a straight in live play, and it wouldn't have surprised me.

My head hurts after all this thinking and editing. I'm really curious for other responses and results. Great post. Hopefully no one finds this to be an automuck. I can't see it being an autocall.

GimmeDaWatch · #5 02-08-2005, 01:06 AM

Ya, SB is completely messing up the works. Button basically cant have you beat unless he hit his miracle card on the river w/99 or JTs, but why he would bother pushing with a flush is a mystery, so who knows. I gotta think SB has a boat here, though, unless he's pretty bad. If I have any respect for SB here at all, I think I fold while sobbing into my wooby.

sawseech · #6 02-08-2005, 05:12 AM

Q6
Q8
Q9

and it's undetectable
easy fold

LuvDemNutz · #7 02-08-2005, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Q6
Q8
Q9

and it's undetectable
easy fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

Loci · #8 02-08-2005, 05:02 PM

he never stated if the queen or the six was the spade. If the q was, you're right. if the six was, then either the 5/7 or 7/10 make the straight flush.

Huskiez · #9 02-08-2005, 05:06 PM

He stated that the Q was the spade.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop come QQ6 (Q spades)

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless your response came and then he edited his post.

Loci · #10 02-08-2005, 05:14 PM

okay, so, this is a complete retrospective look at things, so take that into account while reading it... We're all sure that you're ahead of button and behind the small blind... If that's the case, there will be a side pot of 340 for your 800 dollar call. You already have fifty in, so you're essentially looking to bet 530 against about a 2G and another 170 for a pot with 340 as a kick back if you only beat button. With a boat against opponents who could easily be slow playing trip Qs, walked cheaply into runner runner flush or straights, or a smaller boat, I think a call is in order here. You've only bet forty on the turn and fifty on the river, they think you're looking for a cheap buy, they probably don't expect that size of a monster... while I think you lost this hand, I can see these players making the same moves and calls with a lot less than a boat.
Again, this is all retrospective, but I don't think a fold is in order usually at this point.
Ez