TPTK and Gettin Donk bet

[mr pink]

if you were the blind here with 77/88 or any other 2 cards, don't you think that's a pretty good board to bluff at?

[clownshoes]

I agree that a calldown is best. You'll get the most out of a weak ace and a bluff and you wont have to throw chips at a flush or a straight.
Even with his aggression I dont think I could fold to this ever. However, if we went for the c/r then I could drop it.

[Shillx]

You should only raise the turn if he will not bluff again on the river or if you plan on betting the river UI after you raise the turn. The other time to raise is when he might fold a live hand (like a small heart). If he will only fold hands that are drawing to 5 outs (like AT) then it is better to just calldown since you don't risk folding out a pure bluff and you get more EV by keeping him in there. Knowing if players will continue a bluff on the river is one of the most important reads to have (that you can't get from looking at PT stats) since it is very reliable and these situations come up all the time. In general against a bad player I would tend to calldown since they bluff far too much into medium sized pots on these types of boards.

Brad

[winky51]

Call Call.... why?

Only 2 callers. There is a less than 50% chance that one of them have 2 hearts.

If hes bluffing he will probably continue bluffing and thats +EV

If he has a weak ace +EV

If he has the flush then its the cheapest way to find out besides folding.

If he hit a hand like 2 pair (A5s) then this gives you the chance to redraw on him.
A2s means you got 3s, 5s, Ks (9 outs)
A3s means you got 3s, 5s, Ks (9 outs) maybe less if his 3 is a heart but thats 1:4
A5s means 3 outs.

Seems like calling earns you the most and saves you the most.

Also calling down in front of other callers shows the bluffers your willing to call down. Guarantee they see you fold here you will see more bluffs at you later.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I almost want to fold with that kind of read, but sometimes the villain will only have a weak Ace or some strange holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does "sometimes" mean more than 30% of the time? Hero is getting only 3:1 to call down--and even if he is ahead his opponent could have numerous outs against him. Indeed, I doubt that an opponent who never raises PF and who has a post-flop AG rating of less than 1.0 is betting a weak ace or bluffing here more than 30% of the time.




[ QUOTE ]
For that reason you should still raise to protect your hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

How does a raise protect his hand in a heads-up confrontation?

[Fo10]

For all of those who feel raising is the best play what do we do if we raise, and get donked on the river as well?

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I almost want to fold with that kind of read, but sometimes the villain will only have a weak Ace or some strange holding. For that reason you should still raise to protect your hand and gain value for the % of times you are still ahead. Depending on the river I may bet again.

[/ QUOTE ]


Protect it from whom? Isn't this heads up on the river?

[arch12]

I personally feel this is a fold. I think that are just too many factors pointing to folding this hand, including:
-Your opponent is passive (granted the sample size is quite small and may be misleading)
-The small pot size
-Two draws have been completed on the turn

I did a little analysis into his possible hands and came up with the following:
Opponent’s possible holdings:
50% - straight or flush
20% - two pair
20% - weaker ace/smaller pair
10% - bluff

These estimates led me to conclude the following:
Pot size: 4.70BB
~8 outs when he has 2 pair(very generous estimate)– 4.7:1 x 20% = ~3.5% = ~29:1
~3.5% +10% (bluff) = 13.5% = ~6.5:1 is required to call down profitably
EDIT: it actually has to be a little higher than this, as I didn't account for the times you are winning and get outdrawn on the river.

The above analysis points clearly to folding. While the % are only my estimates based on my experiences, I feel it was quite a fair assessment. Even if you dispute these estimates, you should make the play according to his most likely holdings, and in my opinion that is a fold. I think it’s hard for anyone to dispute that your opponent won't have a straight, flush or aces up at least 50% of the time. In the end, you only have a pair on a highly coordinated board. *If my analysis is wrong in any way please feel free to let me know.

[winky51]

2 opponents, lot less likely they have the draws. More likely they got 2 pair.

MP2 calling with a 4 in his hand? Only 4 would be A4 there.

If he made a flush I think he would check raise the turn. What AK wont bet there.

More likely 2 pair