bad run of cards or playing worse?

graarrg · #1 06-10-2005, 04:09 PM

so over the past 1.5k hands, I've been doing miserably bad, like -.5BB/100 bad in comparison to my previous 7k of 5.5BB/100. I'm afraid it might not help that I just read kreiger's book and tried to apply a few of the concepts there (a few of which were contrary to my own play style), but I doubt it would make such a huge difference.

Anyway, my important question is.. Is it safe to say it's just bad luck so long as your W$SD and Won% WSF aren't dropping? thanks

JackWhite · #2 06-10-2005, 05:23 PM

I am in the same situation. I normally win at O/8, but in the last few weeks I have been getting killed. I think sometimes you just have to concede that bad luck will get you from time to time. When you lose big pot after big pot when the board pairs on the river, when you nut low gets counterfeited on the river etc.. well, there is nothing you can do. Don't doubt your play if you did everything correct. If you were betting and raising with the best hand, then lost it on the river, just realize that it all evens out.

toots · #3 06-10-2005, 06:43 PM

It's a party.

I've had a losing week (50BB or so) as well.

bodie · #4 06-10-2005, 07:00 PM

It must be a party - I had one of the worst days today I've ever had! The past two sessions were good - I know I chased some drawing hands today that didn't work out (but they were at least drawing to the nuts in monster pots), but still...
I think the best thing is to try and go over your decision in your head so you can recognize any mistakes you might have made at least to be aware of them. Also, I do think that changing your strategy after reading a book can mess up your play until it becomes integrated into your own style. I know that happened to me the day after I was reading Ray Zee's book.

Ironman · #5 06-10-2005, 08:02 PM

One other thing that I want to mention that might help for those trying to "change their game" by reading books or advice here.

I think (this is just my opinion with no scientific backing whatsoever) that there are several different ways of playing winning Omaha.

The way that I play is based on my personality and skill level.

If I were to try a different set of playing standards (suggestions from a book) that was outside my comfort zone or contrary to my style of play, my results may vary even though you are trying to apply "correct" or someone else's "optimal" strategies.

For example, if I played the hands that Ribbo or Wintermute might feel comfortable playing, it might put me in a position that I am uncomfortable with and lead to a mistake here or there.

So, get back to what you feel comfortable with...whichever way you play.

Dave

graarrg · #6 06-11-2005, 01:49 AM

good to see these types of infinitely low low low runs aren't just happening to me.

I think the primary problem is that some suggested concepts I took in for a little are really made while misunderstanding the absolute donkage of some Omaha games. It was a matter of application to the right situations, and I hope I've resolved it as of today. I managed to pull the month of June back up to a healthier -.06BB/100, but I think a lot of it was just a bad batch of hands where every A2Kx hand flopped 99T [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

AnyAce · #7 06-11-2005, 07:26 PM

I think a run of -.50BB/100 over 1500 hands at some point is a highly likely occurence for virtually every omaha 8 player out there. In fact, from what I've observed runs of much worse are well within what a player should expect, just from a sheer statistics point of view.

That being said, if you are changing your game because you are running bad, then you may be compounding it.

If you look through the holdem forums you will regularly see known winning players talking about downswings that last for 200BB or thousands and thousands of hands.

All I am trying to say is, to be a slight loser over 1500 hands is very common.

(Think of the times when you had the nut straight and nut low on the turn, and watched the flush card come on the river that counterfeited your low. From scoop to being scooped. That's a lot BBs to lose on a single hand...)

AA

GuitarMarc · #8 06-11-2005, 07:31 PM

Add me to the party. Online and B/M. Loose aggressives taking everything, autoraisers with hands like T6s65 walking away with $500. Raising 50 pct of hands in kill pots. People winning with lows like 37 taking tons of cash off the table. Flopping nut straights, losing to river houses, nut lows getting counterfeited. It's literally amazing what's been happening.

kyleb · #9 06-12-2005, 07:05 AM

Hey-oh, add me to that list.

Jorge10 · #10 06-12-2005, 12:41 PM

Well for a week I couldnt win if my life depended on it at high low and I mean bad beats, I would post the two worse hands, inside straight flush on the river and flush vs flush but he has a pair so the board pairs on the turn and the river he spikes a full house, but anyway. I recovered this week and I am making more than I have ever made before, I did change my play a bit went through my hands tried to look for things that were losing me money, basically looked for leeks in my game. Thats pretty much all I did, but for a while I didnt really notice the changes because my luck was so bad.