How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

[ohkanada]

I just reread that entire thread. It is hilarious. We have had many similar threads on 2+2.

Keb

[jaroot]

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He only said about 10 times, in vehement and emphatic terms, that any good player has to make that call.


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Ahh.. he does indeed insinuate that one would have to be foolish to not make the call, but he does not ever say whether he would actually do it or not. I don't believe that he actually would, given the context of the situation.

Lets say for the sake of argument, that you are at the WSOP
1st hand dealt, you're in the BB w/ AA.... ALL IN's all the way around to you. - Do you actually call?

In a vacuum... yes - because of the reasons Paul mentioned in his RGP article. But alas, poker is not played in a vacuum and you have to allow for some kind of + or - EV on future actions based on the information given. In the context of the situation, one would have to be FOOLISH to make this call w/ AA. Why you ask? Because after the 3rd or so all-in.. one would have to assume that the remaining 6 people who are about to go all in, are complete and utter morons, with little or no poker skill whatsoever. After all.. what could they possibly be pushing with after the 3rd all in? Probably much less than AA(since we have AA already).. so you know that it is likely that they will eventually be putting their chips in when they are at a huge disadvantage to our hand. Given that... that makes this an easy folding situation.

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
Ahh.. he does indeed insinuate that one would have to be foolish to not make the call, but he does not ever say whether he would actually do it or not. I don't believe that he actually would, given the context of the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
Paul isn't foolish. Of course he'd call.

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.. so you know that it is likely that they will eventually be putting their chips in when they are at a huge disadvantage to our hand.

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We have AA. They will never be at a bigger disadvantage to our hand than they are right now.

[Paul Phillips]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He only said about 10 times, in vehement and emphatic terms, that any good player has to make that call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh.. he does indeed insinuate that one would have to be foolish to not make the call, but he does not ever say whether he would actually do it or not. I don't believe that he actually would, given the context of the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do I have to do, say it in swahili? What kind of topsy-turvy world do we live in where a guy can say something ten different ways and still leave some people saying "ok he may have said it ten different ways, but not this eleventh way, so I don't think he meant it."

Of course I would call. I would call. Call. Yoda style: "Calling with this hand you are doing?" Yes. That.

[ QUOTE ]
In a vacuum... yes - because of the reasons Paul mentioned in his RGP article. But alas, poker is not played in a vacuum and you have to allow for some kind of + or - EV on future actions based on the information given. In the context of the situation, one would have to be FOOLISH to make this call w/ AA. Why you ask? Because after the 3rd or so all-in.. one would have to assume that the remaining 6 people who are about to go all in, are complete and utter morons, with little or no poker skill whatsoever. After all.. what could they possibly be pushing with after the 3rd all in? Probably much less than AA(since we have AA already).. so you know that it is likely that they will eventually be putting their chips in when they are at a huge disadvantage to our hand. Given that... that makes this an easy folding situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, barring the board making rainbow broadway or something equally improbable, eight out of nine of them are going broke this hand. I covered that aspect in one of the umpteen posts I wrote on rgp.

But even if they all could and would rebuy once for 10K after losing the nine-way all-in that you skipped, you'd still have been completely wrong to fold the aces.

[pshreck]

What about this situation.... 9 in front of you have gone all in, but based on some previous information you are 95-99% sure ONE of them also has aces (say there is another pro three seats in who calls for all his chips after two all ins).

I know the great theoretical situation of the family all in would never happen.... but how much would things changed if you just knew another player had aces....

[Richard Tanner]

I'd like to point out that the situation most people are describing is one that will just never happen. Sorry but I've never seen a sitation like this, it's just too perfect.
However (I give, I'll answer as if it were real), just call with the damn aces. Yeah it's mathematically wrong but so is everything about that situation. Paul is right (I guess we can agree on something), put the money in and roll the dice. At very least you'll get to have fun with everyone else whose fate hangs in the balance.

Cody

[SossMan]

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However (I give, I'll answer as if it were real), just call with the damn aces. Yeah it's mathematically wrong but so is everything about that situation.

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this just keeps getting better and better.

[Richard Tanner]

I guess I'm a little slow, care to explain the sarcasam.

Cody

[MLG]

It isnt mathematically wrong to call. It is completely, utterly correct.

[Richard Tanner]

I suppose I just don't like going in with a 30% (I'm not sure what the real percentage is, but it can't be much better if it's at all better) chance of winning, even if it means nonupiling up. Cash game, certainly. Tournement, which was what I thought we were talking about, no way. That's just the difference between the two, go broke and your done. Odds alone don't justify the call.
That said, if this bizarre situation happens, go for it, math be damnned, that's just to odd to pass up.

Cody