a slow play

[Guruman]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

this table had been getting a little too tight lately, and I had been winning without showing down disproportionately.

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

It seems like the only time a bet is correct here is when villain holds a flush draw or A2. Lots of other hands are just dead here. I checked, hoping he could improve enough on the turn to call down. If he was going to call down here anyway, then I lost 1sb. If he wasn't and improved, then I gain 2bb.

Turn: (3.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (5.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

horrible? OK?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like the only time a bet is correct here is when villain will call with a worse hand

[/ QUOTE ]

[Scruff]

I say bet the flop. He expects you to bet, since you 3-bet pre-flop, and he could easily take that for a bluff and try to raise you off the hand or something.

Instead if he does have the flush draw, you are giving him two cards for just one-big bet and at 4.75:1.

[ReadyEddie]

yeah this is not a spot to slowplay, you're giving a flush infinate odds, as well as pp's. Never give free cards like this. I'd rather win this hand now than have him hit some miracle card without paying for it.

plus, like it was said, everyone bets flop after they were the preflop aggresor, so villain is not going to put you on a K just because you bet this flop.

[MelchyBeau]

I think slowplaying on party's 2/4 tables is a big no no. So many people will call down with absolute trash at times. It might be a fluke that you are winning without showing down hands alot.

With that being said, You could slowplay if there was only 1 diamond on the board.

Melch

[jason_t]

Bet the flop. People like to call. He might even get frisky on you.

[Harv72b]

I think your turn bet is much more likely to be called by a worse hand if you also bet the flop. Checking through this flop &amp; then betting a brick turn just screams "slowplay", especially after you 3-bet preflop.

BTW, what read on MP2 did you have that caused you to 3-bet with KQo? Against a normal opponent, even given the table conditions you described, this is a preflop muck for me. Even 8-handed, you're a dog to the vast majority of MP2 raising hands (and a huge dog to some).

[Guruman]

I think I like your reasoning for betting the flop most harv.

Villain had been raising light pf generally and folding light postflop vs me specifically over the last several orbits. He's not horrible, but not wonderful either. Not enough hands for meaningful stats though.

I'll work up some math...

[Guruman]

By the time I check the flop, all I really know about villain’s hand is that he wanted to raise it pf and not cap. He also chose not to lead the flop.

I estimated villain’s pf range at the time as A8s+, AT+, K9+, QT+, 66+ (that ended up being a little narrow)

raw numbers:
odds of being dealt two suited 3.3/1 (24%)
odds he’ll specifically have two diamonds 6% (actually less, as he’ll have folded or just called several suited combinations)
odds he’ll have AA – 220/1 (less than one half of one percent)
odds he will have completely missed the flop.

I consider AA to be particularly unlikely here because most people that are willing to open AA are also willing to cap it pf.

If he actually is on a flush draw, he’s drawing to seven outs and not 9. Also, a flush draw isn’t going anywhere for one bet on the flop, but if I leave the pot smaller he may find a fold on the turn getting 3/1. Since he’s drawing live less than 6% of the time here, I think a check is fairly safe. And keep in mind here that we’ve not seen any indication that he’s actually on a flush draw. A made flush will also auto bet the turn, and while I’m still likely to raise a flush card there – I think I’m disciplined enough to just call a reraise and re-eval on the river. If I had bet the flop, then villain could go for a checkraise on a made turn, and this would put me in a tough spot.

Also, many pfraiseworthy pocket pairs (66-99, TT, QQ) will autobet the turn once the flop checks through, where I can raise and they can call down. I profit more here than if I had bet the flop and they had just called and check/folded the turn or river.

If villain had unpaired cards that missed (which is the majority of his range btw), then he can easily find a fold on the flop. If he pairs up on the turn though, he may be tempted to call on the turn, which means that he has to call on the river.

Sure it’s a calculated risk. I don’t think its terrible yet. I’m still willing to be convinced though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Slowplaying sucks.



(most of the time)