Winners/Losers PLO8

Hi Everyone first post. Have a question about percentage of winners and losers at PLO8. I used to play Limit hi/lo on empire and my Poker tracker database showed 36% of players winners the rest losers. After the party breakup went to UB and didn't do to good at 2/4 and discovered PLO8, now on party playing PLO8, trying to learn, but discovered in my database (only 45K hands)that the number of winners and losers is almost exactly the same with no real big winners or losers, this is at PL $25. Is my database to small or is it no one knows what they are doing. I know I don't but appear to be getting better. Also if the 2 cute stormtroopers read this I have a question for them because they seem to know the most about this game. My VP$IP is at 18 and then i seem to fold after the flop an awful lot. My won $ after seeing the flop has dropped from 37 at Limit to 25 at PLO8. I know this isn't much info but am I folding to much after the flop? To me it seems I have to fold if a low hits the board and I have no decent high. Even a nut low gets you killed without a high it seems so I fold alot of nut lows. I'm rambling sorry but I saw either Ribbo's or Wintermute's stats and they showed 50% won $ when saw flop. I also only play full tables if possible. Any help or insight in this game is appreciated.

Seems like Ribbo pushes more often than not before the flop, and is typically heads-up or 3-way at most. That easily explains his 50% stat.

Any higher limit O8 table is going to have less people seeing the flop.

18% VP$IP does sound a little low especially for $25 tables. How's your BB/hour rate?

Its actually around -3BB/100 right now I only have a couple of thoussand hands, it was up around 20BB/100 but a few wine glasses later it all went away. No more wine while playing. This game will carve you up quick it seems but if you wait long enough you can do the carving. I am wondering if I do to much waiting and not enough pushing. Just checked my VP$IP and it is right at 20. Have been opening up more especially from SB and button, I think with only 2500 hands or so my numbers probably arent really worth much but I do play tight preflop, actually tight post flop to. If I don't have nuts or drawing to them I get out. When I win big its because a couple of people are playing non nut hands against me and I don't want to be on the recieving end of that. My big losses come from the wrong side of the boat. I know better than to do this but thats where I get sucked in.

My biggest leak is overplaying Aces, cost me about $400 over the past 4-6 weeks I think. I'm also just playing $25 tables also.

There's certainly nothing wrong with playing tight in O8. Pick out your losing hands in Poker Tracker and see how they could have been avoided.

[AnyAce]

I have about 600K hands in my database. Almost all PLO8 $100. My database shows 62% losers and 38% winners.

I would be surprised if there were many databases out there that had splits that were dramatically different than this because of survival bias. Basically, bad players go broke, but stay in the database, keeping the number of losing players high.

By contrast, when I limit the database to players I have 1500 hands or more on there the numbers are reversed pretty much (34% losers and 66% winners) with win/loss rates ranging from +21BB/100 to -32BB/100. Again, not surprising, since for me to have 1500 hands on them, means they havent gone broke (at least not yet).

Good luck
AA

[Drizztdj]

Wow you guys play a lot.

[Scruff]

My database has 4370 hands and is 62/38 mostly at $200 buy-in, with some $500 and very little $50 and $100. Don't forget the rake. I think that's a bigger factor than survival bias, but I could be wrong there. (I don't play at Party, so I can't just datamine, I have to be playing to get data) - not sure if that's much of a sample or not.

[ QUOTE ]
"Even a nut low gets you killed without a high it seems so I fold alot of nut lows."

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you can hang around a little more in smaller pots. You can also try to push more at small pots when you think everyone else is weak, especially if 'everyone else' is only 1 or 2 players and you have a little something each way (odds of one guy getting you both ways in a small pot are usually slim).

[ QUOTE ]
This game will carve you up quick it seems but if you wait long enough you can do the carving.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ain't that the truth. If you wait long enough you will do the carving, don't worry. I play a fairly tight, wait for the nuts game, but I'm willing to push against bad opponents and I try to get involved in pots with bad opponents and avoid good opponents. I know it's cliche, but it really makes a difference.

Actually, I think that makes a huge difference. I don't sit at the table if I can't get position on the maniacs, etc.. When the bad players leave, I'll tighten up and eventually I leave too. Things like that add a lot to your earn in a game like this. I know that I still have some pretty big leaks, yet I'm at 12.56 BB/100 (W/when seeing flop is 27% in 7-10 handed games - I tend to lose smaller pots and win bigger ones generally) and I rarely have a long enough bad swing that it even makes me worry. For example, when I get stuck with a weak hand like a bottom set or K high flush, it's tough to let go - but I keep myself out of those situations pre-flop mucking trash like 2s3d3hKs. It's when I pick up a hand like that in the blind that I have trouble if it hits. But I'm working at it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I know a lot of that stuff is 'obvious' to many people here, but for a new person to a game like PLO8 it might not be - and even if it is, putting it into practice isn't so easy for every personality type. Hopefully that helped you some . . .

Database statistics are useless for determining the real number of winners and losers in the game, because your sample size is too small. You have less than 1000 hands on most players and often less than 100. This is insufficient to determine anything about the game.

Someone did a statistical simulation a while back with 10% real winners and 90% losers. Even after hundreds of hands on each player, the database was split 60/40. This is actually expected by statistics.

My guess would be 10-15% are winners at omaha/8, with maybe 5% being big winners. Most of the regular 'pros' who play many hours a day are winners, with a few notable exceptions. Almost all the rest are long term losers.

[Big Dave D]

Old story.

PT stats will naturally only cover those people who stay long enough to get stats on. This will be disproprionately be winners, and flash-in-the-pans. Losers go broke. In truth it is highly likely that only 10% of any population of players are winners.

Playing stats arent that imprtant either...winners can have a VIP of just into double figures to over 40%. The key is how you play from the flop ownwards.

gl

Dave

Thanks for all the responses. After reading them I did realze I had limited my data to players with more than 500 hands, when I removed the filter the numbers were in line where everyone said. Thanks for the help again. It took over 5000 hands but finally got out of the hole and am now up. I was already tight just got more aggresive with my hands after the flop. Had some swings but was amazed to see what people were holding that I had been folding to. Still have to be carfull, it seems you have to be very patient, what with blinds only changing hands for a long period then a big hand finally hits. Sorry rambling again. Thanks again for the info. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]