AA all in preflop question

[Percussion]

While this may sound stupid, I justify posting this beacuse i am a 'n00b' at poker.

What would be a favorite to win preflop -- AA, or KQJs (I KNOW YOU DONT GET 3 CARDS IN HOLDEM, BUT THATS WHAT MAKES THIS A TOUGH QUESTION)
Oh, and KQJs can only use 2 cards -- if 2 clubs come its not a flush :P or AT or something!

[JoshuaD]

My hunch is AA, but I've got nothing mathematical to back that up with.

876s would be better off than KQJs, FYI.

[Abbaddabba]

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876s would be better off than KQJs, FYI.

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What is that based on? The fact that their connected value is higher? I'm pretty sure the high card value would be more dominant, even with 3 cards (where only 2 can be used). You lose only marginal value on account of the fact that there are 2 fewer straight possibilities with the J/Q/K, plus you have the dominant flush value.


As for aces - i have no idea.

[Scruff]

The 876 is better because two of the straight cards (the AA) aren't missing . . . Also, the high card value doesn't mean anything because the AA will always be the top pair, either way you need to get two pair (or better) to win. And either way if you get two pair and he gets two pair, he'll win. 7766 is just as good as KKQQ in that situation.

[TheHammer24]

You can make three different two card hands with KQJs, KQ, KJ, QJ. Assuming you have two black aces vs three suited red cards. KQ will beat AA 17.7%, KJ 18.1%, and QJ 19.7%. Add the three together and you get 56.5% and thus it would be a slight favorite.

AA vs 678s. 87s will win 23% of the time, 86 21.8%, and 67 also 23%. For a total of 67.8% making 678s about a 2:1 favorite over AA.

[pzhon]

AA is a solid favorite, even without the ace of the suit of the KQJs.

Here are two ways to see this:

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] KQs has an equity of .163 with the jack removed from the deck. KJs has an equity of .167. QJs has an equity of .185. These total .515. If the ways to win/tie were completely disjoint, KQJs might be a slight favorite, however, there is a huge amount of overlap. About 5% of the time, KQ wins with a flush, and so would KJs and QJs. When KQs hits trips, so would either QJs or KJs. That means the ways of winning are far from disjoint. From the flushes alone, the sum .515 overcounts the equity of KQJs by over .100.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I shuffled and dealt out 45 boards. AA won exactly 30, lost 15, and tied 0. That is more than 2 standard deviations away from breaking even, strong evidence that AA is the favorite.

[Scruff]

I don't think you can add the probabilities like that. Many of the boards (all of the flush boards) that will win for KQ, KJ, QJ will overlap, for example.

EDIT - my post was in response to TheHammer, not Pfozon's.

[JKDStudent]

Not only that, but straights become less likely as one of the cards you would need is missing from the deck.