JJ overpair facing aggression

[Brad F.]

Alright, I'd like to define villian's range and then move on from there.

Villian seems to be extremely LAGGY. That being said, the lag could have 7-10 through A-10 here and be betting out with top pair. If he's EXTREMELY loose and fishy, I guess we could put a 10-5, 10-3 or 3-5 in the realm of possibility but I really doubt it.

There is no real draw other than the straight draw. A LAG player could bet out with A-2 through A-5 here.

Those are the possiblities in which he caught a part of the flop. He very well could have absolute air here as well.

You are behind a wierd two-pair or a set here. I don't think he has an overpair due to the lack of a raise PF.

So I really feel as if you are ahead here most of the time.

I'd raise to $24. It lets the villian know that you are serious about your hand. With no other reads than his loose nature, this hand could get difficult by the turn. So raise on the flop and be happy to take it down.

If he smoothcalls, I raise many turns. If he reraises on the flop, I think I call and stack his inferior pair.

Hope this helps.

Brad

[bizaff]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian seems to be extremely LAGGY.

[/ QUOTE ]

73/18/.66 over 180 hands is LAG? That's awfully low aggression.

I can see either calling or raising. If he reraises, you're done. If you call and blanks (non-pairing or non-overcards) hit, you can keep calling and keep letting him (hopefully) bluff. Since there's so many cards you don't much like (3 T, 3 3, 3 5, 4 A, 4 K, 4 Q = 21) just calling is a bit iffy. Since his aggression is so low, that lends a little more credence to just calling as the straight cards (2, 4, 6) don't scare you so much.