More on 9ers/Falcons week 1

[natedogg]

The falcons are using a new West Coast attack under Jim Mora. That's right, they want to minimize downfield long shots and QB scrambling. They want Vick to stay in the pocket as much as possible.

The one advantage the Falcons have is that Vick can throw the ball 60 yards on a zipline, and he can outscramble every defender in the league.

Now the Falcons are bound and determined to have him sit in the pocket and throw short passes. It's ridiculous. Trade Mike Vick if you don't want Mike Vick. He's absolutely dominating when he does his thing. He's shown that many times.

But the Falcons have decided they want Jeff Garcia, so they're going to make Vick act like Jeff Garcia.

This is going to be really, really bad for week 1. West Coast offense is hard to learn. Most QBs take about 2-3 years to really "get it". I highly doubt that Vick will be the exception.

Now, on the 9er side, we have problems on offense, obviously, but not crippling problems. They have young inexperienced receivers for the most part, but Brandon Lloyd showed something as a rookie last year, and Rattay may not be Joe Montana but he can win games.

And they actually have a great runner in Kevin Barlow.

They are in the second year of the current coach's system, so they will be settled. The Falcons are in the first year of learning Jim Mora's system, so they will most likely NOT be settled. Furthermore, Vick is nursing a hamstring injury. This is bad. Hamstrings are one of the worst nagging injuries that hang around. If Vick is hampered so that his scrambling isn't even at 100%, the Falcons' offense goose is cooked.

On defense, the 9ers have nearly the identical team as last year. A solid overall Defense. Grade A linebackers, all around. The secondary is fine with two studs in Parrish and Plummer, and the d line is the only problem, but not terrible.

I expect the 9ers to win this game outright to be honest.

The line is at +4 to +5 right now and I expect the Vick-struck public to push it even higher by opening weekend.

If it reaches 7 by any chance I'll jump for joy and activate that line of credit on my home.

natedogg

[CarlSpackler]

On the flip side, Rattay missed all of the offseason with a groin injury, so actually he has gotten way less work in for the 49ers than Vick has for atl. I think that qb's not scrambling in the west coast offense is a myth--look at Montana and Farve; they scramble(d) around all the time in order to buy time to find an open receiver. I definitely like SF's defense better than atl's, but they're having to adjust to a new defensive coordinator. In addition, the 49er offense is in for its first game without TO, which I think is going to be a huge adjustment. Don't forget they lost there other starting WR Streets, so now Loyd is going from #3 to the #1 guy, which is not easy (see Peerless Price last year). I would also think that if anyone knew the best way to shut down SF's offense, it would be Mora. Personally, I would stay away from this game, as there are too many unknown variables for both teams. If the line does move to +7.5 or more, then you could probably justify making a small wager on the niners (a value bet if you will).