How long can a good streak last?

Hi guys.

So how many hands do I have to play before I can be confident I can play this game?

Bit of background:
I know Im a winning player, but it was never to the rates I was satisfied with.
I found this place. Won nicely at 2/4 and moved up. I then had a dry spell at 3/6 and Harv72 gave me a post containing several great pieces of advice which i feel has transformed my game.

Since then I have gone at just over 3BB/100 over 21000 hands. 1.7BB over 11000 at 3/6 and 4.4BB over 10000 at 5/10.

So, when will i crash and burn?

I read of people beating these games for 3BB/100 but I find it hard to dare to believe it might be me. I know I cant hold a candle to some of the guys on here, but I just seem to be coming accross some many horrific players, my mind starts wandering. 4 guys cold called my EP raise 5 mins ago. They all folded to one small bet. Laughable!

I know bad times loom, but im curious as to how long people go on rushes. 21000 isnt a lot, but it isnt a tiny sample either.

Anyway - thanks for listening. I plan to post my PT stats soon as it proved very helpful last time.

[SackUp]

Hard to really say how long it will last so just enjoy the ride. Just don't go nuts if you have a big slump as one will happen, you just won't know when or for how long.

It is key to remember that this is a long term game, so while short term wins are fun and short term losses suck don't let either cloud your judgement.

It appears you are definitely doing well so keep it up and play solid poka. Your bb/100 will fall out where it does and playing the best poker you can will keep it at its maximum.

If you are wondering for moving up purposes it really depends on how comfortable you are at the game. i would probably play more than 11k hands before moving up, but it really depends on how you feel about your own play. Nothing wrong with taking a shot if you have the roll.

[Dunno]

I think ur a really good player and if u keep playing vs thoose guys ur a great player [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Sure u will be facing a big downstreak sooner or later but it will pass and u will win again. just keep ur head cold when it comes.

GL

[sy_or_bust]

The long run is depressingly long. Enjoy your hot streak, and never, ever, get complacent with your game. Keep working to improve your game - don't wait for the 150BB downswing.

FWIW, I just 'finished' a 20k streak around 5BB/100. They happen [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks for the response guys. I guess sy_or_bust's post is what I needed to see. Ive had a 175BB downswing before. Unfortunately it was at 15/30!! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Thats why I went back to low limits to improve.

Right - I'll just enjoy the rush. If Im still at 3BB at 50000 hands, expect another similar post.... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]