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#1
08-07-2005, 02:50 PM
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A little fun on the river. (or spend my money as you see fit)
15/30 online 9 handed
I found this hand kind of interesting. I'm not UTG in this hand I just watched it and wondered about some of his decisions, especially on the river. FWIW I do think that UTG misplayed the flop and turn, but probably not in a crime against humanity sort of way. Your UTG and open with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], UTG+1 cold calls he or she is way to loose not criminaly passive but very fit or fold postflop, folds to a TA CO who 3 bets, who is then 4 bet by a TA Button, both players are very aggressive post flop. You of course call (after the blinds fold) as do the other two players. 17 and change SB in the pot Flop 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] You bet out, UTG+1 calls, CO bugs out, Button Raises, you smooth call, and UTG+1 calls Turn(12 BB) A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] You check, UTG+1 bets, Button calls, you raise, UTG+1 3 bets, Button cold calls, you call River(21 BB) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] You check, UTG+1 bets, Button raises, you ? 
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#3
08-07-2005, 03:40 PM
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Re: A little fun on the river. (or spend my money as you see fit)
Button may have AA, AK, even 88 or 55. Depending on how tricky she is, A8s is a possibility. UTG+1 appears to have the flush and so it is unlikely that she 3-bets here. I don't think you'll make money in the long run by folding in this spot.
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#4
08-07-2005, 04:11 PM
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Re: A little fun on the river. (or spend my money as you see fit)
i call. a fold is a horrible play imo. button appears to have AA, but there is no way to be sure.
on the turn a cap is a considerable option. if we are ahead, we have almost 100% pot equity. agains a flush we have 17 outs (or 13 against flush and aces up), against a set of aces 10 and even against a flush and a set of aces 8. ok, after thinking it through a cap is probably a mistake, but i think its pretty close.
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#6
08-07-2005, 06:43 PM
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Re: A little fun on the river. (or spend my money as you see fit)
[ QUOTE ]
Button may have AA, AK, even 88 or 55. Depending on how tricky she is, A8s is a possibility. UTG+1 appears to have the flush and so it is unlikely that she 3-bets here. I don't think you'll make money in the long run by folding in this spot. [/ QUOTE ] What are the chances that a tight button makes it 4 bets with 88,55,A8?
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#7
08-07-2005, 11:01 PM
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Re: A little fun on the river. (or spend my money as you see fit)
I posted this hand because I think it comes about as close as you can to a fold with a full house on the river. UTG has to know that he's beat by the button because there just aren't many hands that meet this pattern. He has the third nut but it just isn't good enough, 2 bets to you in a protected pot with an obvious made hand pushing the action.
As I said I think he messed up the turn action and foolishly allowed a 3 bet, but given that action and the certainty of hand strengths I think he can clearly save the two bets on the river. I just don't see how he's better more than the 12 : 1 that is required. (actually he's not really even getting odds that good, what if the nut on his left 3 bets?) Different preflop, flop, turn, yea call or 3 bet (more likely 3 bet), different players, sure, but I just think this is an easy fold.
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#8
08-07-2005, 11:13 PM
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Re: A little fun on the river. (or spend my money as you see fit)
Looking at it now & having to time to consider each action on each street, the player reads, and the likely holdings, it's pretty easy to say that he should fold the river.
In real time, if it's me with the kings I don't see how I avoid paying off. Just being honest.
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#9
08-07-2005, 11:24 PM
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Re: A little fun on the river. (or spend my money as you see fit)
In real time, if it's me with the kings I don't see how I avoid paying off. Just being honest.
Well of course. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] None of us are, that's why you spend time working on this away from the table. In our theoretic state we get to analyze to our hearts content so that in the future when presented a similar situation we can make a correct play.
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#10
08-07-2005, 11:29 PM
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Re: A little fun on the river. (or spend my money as you see fit)
The only 4betting hands here from a TAG are:
AA KK JJ TT maybe more/less PPs depending on pfr AKs No one in their right mind plays any hand on the list above but AA like this. I think 55 would never play like this, maybe 88 about 10% of the time. Given that, my hand readings are: AQs UTG+1 AA Button KK You. And you lose. I write all this and then click the "Call" button and pray to god that button has a random AKs.
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