KJo in the BB

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

JJ and AJs are still common enough limping hands that I think it is fair to estimate that they will still be out there.

Let's assume they're not.

What do your numbers look like then?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why should we assume something that isn't true? I see AJs being limped by non-TAG players far more often than I see it being raised. JJ is closer and I'd weight it at about 50/50.

To answer your question, though, your equity skyrockets all the way up to 28.9% when you remove all possible domating hands from the mix.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,223,826 games 24.806 secs 210,587 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.0847 % 23.37% 01.71% { TT-55, ATs-A2s, K3s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, ATo-A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 23.5936 % 22.02% 01.58% { TT-44, ATs-A2s, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, ATo-A2o, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 3: 22.4178 % 21.00% 01.42% { TT-33, ATs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, ATo-A2o, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o, 87o }
Hand 4: 28.9039 % 27.29% 01.62% { KJo }

[Smasharoo]

I suspect that if he did withhold recommending raising it for variance reasons instead of value, he would have stated such.

I suspect not.

I suspect he wanted a clear bright line of EV for pre-flop recomendations, realizing they'd be the most used portion of the book by many players.

Have to ask Ed to know for sure though, I guess.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I hope everyone knows that pokerstove's usefulness here is dubious, since it doesn't take into account position and the way hands play out postflop. Position is especially interesting since we know that you make more money in the long run in late position, that therefore has added value and earlier positions have less. So for whatever these calcs are worth, they don't take that into account.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect when Smasharoo is arguing that based on equity alone, we make more money by raising than by not raising. At this point, we need to stop considering postflop elements of play (lack of position) and just consider how much we will earn on a raise. We do this by estimating our equity in the pot and multiplying it by the amount gained from a raise, since better tools do not, as of yet, exist for this purpose.

Rob

[damaniac]

Right but isn't that whole argument flawed? It's great to know that 25% of all that money preflop "belongs to me" or whatever, but the hand doesn't exactly stop there does it? Which is why we have to take postflop into account. Which is why you are right, Smasharoo is wrong, and we need to discuss postflop play instead of these minute and irritating preflop decisions that aren't going to have a monstrous impact on our winrates.

[bottomset]

I'm curious on what happens when all 3 limpers are the 32.1% type(leave JJ, AJs in, I'm totally with you on your assessment of them)

also how much of an extra edge does being suited add here(the orig sim w/ JJ, AJs)

[Smasharoo]

I know that my opponent's most likely action postflop is calling in this game, and I know that by raising preflop, I make it more mathematically correct for them to do what they love: call.


You get 3 to 1 on their pre-flop call and most likely less on the post flop ation. They will call, as you've said, regardless. The fact that they are calling correctly doesn't impact your return in the slightest. You will be winning the same number of hands and losing the same number of hands. When you lose, you lose an extra BB when you win, you win an additional 1.5. You will still win 4/5 times (or whatever) so over the 5 hands you net an additional 1BB per hand. Explain to me how you make more money by not raisig (getting 3 to 1 again) because they are calling incorrectly postlfop.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious on what happens when all 3 limpers are the 32.1% type(leave JJ, AJs in, I'm totally with you on your assessment of them)

also how much of an extra edge does being suited add here(the orig sim w/ JJ, AJs)

[/ QUOTE ]

Suited, against 3 31.2% players: 29.98% equity.
Unsuited, against 3 31.2% players: 26.35% equity.

Rob

[Jakesta]

So are you raising KTs, QTs, and JTs here, Entity?

[Smasharoo]

Which is why you are right, Smasharoo is wrong, and we need to discuss postflop play instead of these minute and irritating preflop decisions that aren't going to have a monstrous impact on our winrates.


Two independent decisions.

Playing well postflop is obviously where most of the money is made. That doesn't mean value should be ignored pre-flop.

Your argument could be applied to AA just as easily as KJo. Mainly because it's not much of an argument.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

Your argument could be applied to AA just as easily as KJo.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's bullshit hyperbole, and you know it. His argument is predicated upon the decision not making a huge difference (and against 3 limpers, it probably doesn't). Not raising AA in this situation is, however, a significant error, and would have a rather significant impact upon one's winrate, as AA's equity and expectation are easily 2x KJo's in this instance.

Rob