KJo in the BB

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm saying I may not make a +EV play if it gives me a higher chance of making a much more +EV play later, and just as importantly, decreases my chances of making a -EV play later in the hand.


Might be better to refine your postflop play so that you're not makig -EV plays because you raised when you were in a +EV situation pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not mathematically possible. By the sheer virtue of raising preflop, you make the pot larger, and make some decisions, which may have been closer had you not raised, different decisions. This is both true for your plan and for your opponent's play.

So, for example, we're faced with the following situation:

You raise preflop and flop top pair. On the river, the second card pairs (board K4828), and you are raised after betting out. Your opponent is passive in general but there is a certain chance of him bluffing at a scare card.

Your preflop play, which allowed you an increase of approximately 27% of 4SB at a cost of 1SB (a net gain of .08SB), has made it possibly correct for you to call in a larger pot on the river, despite the fact that your opponent likely has you beat.

Your preflop play, which had a marginal effect on the overall expected value of the hand, has subsidized the cost of an incorrect river call.

The added fact that you are often making it profitable for a hand like A8 to call on an KJ8 flop is also something to consider. If your opponents are likely to call anyway, it is worth considering that you may want them to be making the incorrect (from an EV standpoint) play, which will be calling when they don't have odds. You don't want a 5-outer to call getting 9:1+ on an KJ8 flop, but they will. However, if you hadn't raised preflop, they will still be calling on that same KJ8 flop.

These are all things worth considering before you decide that "any equity" is worth pushing.

Rob

[Smasharoo]

P. 88, SSHE:

You often make an important trade off when you raise before the flop. When you have a pot equity edge, your raise has an immediate positive expectation because you will win more than your fair share. But that raise simultaneously cuts your postflop expectation.

I suspect this is what he means.

It's probably better if you include the part where he explains why even still you gain more value raising Pre-flop. While KJo is just over Miler's cut off for rasing inthe BB, he'd laugh at people not raising AJo/KQo etc there.

I suspect the reason KJo is over his cut off range has more to do with variance than expectation.

[Jakesta]

[ QUOTE ]
I suspect the reason KJo is over his cut off range has more to do with variance than expectation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? What does variance have to do with this? This is long-term we are talking about, not short-term.

[Smasharoo]

The added fact that you are often making it profitable for a hand like A8 to call on an KJ8 flop is also something to consider. If your opponents are likely to call anyway, it is worth considering that you may want them to be making the incorrect (from an EV standpoint) play, which will be calling when they don't have odds. You don't want a 5-outer to call getting 9:1+ on an KJ8 flop, but they will. However, if you hadn't raised preflop, they will still be calling on that same KJ8 flop.


This is a horrible argument and bad math.

Do you see why?

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

My equity calculations were being generous (as your average limpers are not 55-60% VPIP'ers) to compensate for the fact that I did not remove certain hands from the range. I can remove those hands if necessary and rerun the sims.


Or I could throw darts at a dartboard with various equity percentages on it for an equal level of accuraccy.

Including hands that crush KJ which are normally raised is disingenous at best.

If you don't raise it because you find it easier to play that way, just say so.

There's not a good objective argument for checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

How much equity do you think KJo has in this instance?

Here's an estimate. I removed AK, AKs, AQ, AQs, KK, AA, and QQ. JJ and AJs are still common enough limping hands that I think it is fair to estimate that they will still be out there. With these hands removed, our limpers are now playing (their limping ranges) 32.1% of their hands, 43.7% of their hands, and 51.1% of their hands. I think this is more than fair.

1,520,929 games 7.300 secs 208,346 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)

Hand 1: 25.5038 % 23.87% 01.63% { JJ-55, AJs-A2s, K3s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AQo-A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 24.3612 % 22.86% 01.50% { JJ-44, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 3: 22.4544 % 21.11% 01.35% { JJ-33, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, AJo-A2o, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o, 87o }
Hand 4: 27.6805 % 26.19% 01.49% { KJo }

[Smasharoo]

Huh? What does variance have to do with this? This is long-term we are talking about, not short-term.

Long term, the raise clearly makes more money.

There's not much of an argument otherwise, frankly.

[Smasharoo]

JJ and AJs are still common enough limping hands that I think it is fair to estimate that they will still be out there.

Let's assume they're not.

What do your numbers look like then?

[damaniac]

I think Ed made a point very similiar (albeit much simpler) to this in SSHE, same part where he talked about not raising. And I suspect that if he did withhold recommending raising it for variance reasons instead of value, he would have stated such.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

The added fact that you are often making it profitable for a hand like A8 to call on an KJ8 flop is also something to consider. If your opponents are likely to call anyway, it is worth considering that you may want them to be making the incorrect (from an EV standpoint) play, which will be calling when they don't have odds. You don't want a 5-outer to call getting 9:1+ on an KJ8 flop, but they will. However, if you hadn't raised preflop, they will still be calling on that same KJ8 flop.


This is a horrible argument and bad math.

Do you see why?

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to hear why. I've taken a melatonin so my brain is certainly a bit on the cloudy side, but I know that I want A8 to be calling getting 4:1 and folding getting 9:1 (technically 8.5:1) on a KJ8 flop.

I know that I want my opponents to play incorrectly. This means folding when they have proper odds to call, and raising or calling when they should be folding. I know that my opponent's most likely action postflop is calling in this game, and I know that by raising preflop, I make it more mathematically correct for them to do what they love: call.

I am willing to accept the fact that at a certain point, preflop equity takes over postflop considerations in whether a raise preflop is more +EV than checking my option. I am currently unwilling to accept that KJo meets these requirements -- my guesstimate is that I would need to be gaining more than 30% of the equity to be making this raise.

Rob

[damaniac]

I hope everyone knows that pokerstove's usefulness here is dubious, since it doesn't take into account position and the way hands play out postflop. Position is especially interesting since we know that you make more money in the long run in late position, that therefore has added value and earlier positions have less. So for whatever these calcs are worth, they don't take that into account.