flopping the nuts and folding??

[J_V]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding the nut trips in cash PLO can never be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure you are wrong about this.

[Beavis68]

I don't remember TJ talking about folding trips, I though he was discussing a nut straight that had no outs to improve with a possible flush draw on the board.

With top set you can never be drawing dead.

Still, I think this is a rare occurance. I think the situation arises more in PLO8 where there is a low draw and a flush draw on the board. and you have some straight that can't improve much.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

I think what ya'll wrote so far works fine for small stacks that you can get in on the flop. Even though the odds look good, there are better situations to get money in if the stacks are deep. I think T.J.'s main point was what will you do if one of them hits the money card on the turn and then you have a fat pot bet to call as the dog with one to come?

[nicky g]

OK, give me an example where it's correct to fold top set which is the current nuts in cash PLO high. The only remotely close situation I can conceive of would be in NLO when someone moves in a massive stack on a heads-up tiny pot and you are sure he would only do this with the monster wrap and flush draw.

[snowden719]

Not exactly the situation you were talking about, but top set can definitely be behind...
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=636627
pokenum -o 9d 9c as 3s - 6c 7c th jh -- 8c 9h 2c
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 8c 2c 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s 9c 9d 330 40.24 490 59.76 0 0.00 0.402
7c 6c Jh Th 490 59.76 330 40.24 0 0.00 0.

[nicky g]

Sure, but that's not the same as saying you should fold.

OK I can see an argument for folding if there is a lot of money left to bet heads-up, your opponent raises the pot and you are 100% sure your opponent has the monster wrap and flush draw, and you know he will not pay you any more money if the board pairs. But top set against the monster out draw is pretty rare, and I don;t see how you could ever with confidence put someone squarely on it. And even then I am probably taking off a card and seeing if I can get lots more money in on the turn if the draw doesn't hit and I am now almost certainly favourite. More than heads up and there is no way for you not to be getting the correct odds.

So, anyone apart from SomethingClever ever folded the nut trips on the flop?

[snowden719]

I agree, the situation I described would only be a fold IF you knew opponent for sure had both a monster wrap and flush draw, AND you were playing no limit, seeing as any pot sized bet is giving you 2-1, you will never be in a situation on the flop where you're getting less than a third of the equity in the pot, so yes a fold would be silly here, but it would be theoretically the correct play if you were playing no limit omaha and you knew your opponent had a large wrap and flush draw. As to calling the flop to see the turn, what if the turn brings him a backdoor flush draw also.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=636710
pokenum -o as 3s 9c 9d - 7c 6c jh th -- 9h 8c 2c 3h
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 8c 2c 9h 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s 9c 9d 14 35.00 26 65.00 0 0.00 0.350
7c 6c Jh Th 26 65.00 14 35.00



In the end, yes one can create hypothetical scenarions in which one would not want to call an all in with top set; but this scenario would likely never happen in real life, or you would be unable to correctly read the situation correctly; so never fold top set on the flop or the turn with no straight or flush possible when playing pot limit.

[svenski]

Very interesting discussion so far. I definately wouldnt fold on the flop. if you are up against a really tough opponent smooth call raises and take it from the turn. However I've seen too many players risking their stack with JJ in this spot that i would hammer the raise button. Once in a while you get called down by top two on the flop and the turn as well, excluding the set because of their holding. Simply said I would have a hard time putting an oppponent on a monster draw here and even in the rare occasion that you are a dog it's not by far as already mentioned.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

Nicky G, whether or not it is correct to fold depends on how much variance you want in your game. There are definitely better edges if you're against at least two hands with a semi flush and semi str8 board. All of this is considering it's about $150 to you on the button with only $8 invested preflop or thereabouts.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

Just to add one more post to my record, I've never folded top set on an uncoordinated flop.