ATo in MP with lots of blind money in - raise it up???

[__Q__]

MP3's flop raise would be a little scary here. You said he was tricky, but I can see him having a lot of hands that could beat you. What kinds of hands can we put him on? He definitely could have clubs, but given that you raised a head of him preflop, he could AK-AJ or even a set and could be trying to protect his strong hand against flush draws. I understand he is tricky, but if he is that tricky (turn fold shows he is), then could having a player like this acting behind you be enough of a reason not to raise AT before the flop?

Not arguing with your play, but these are just some questions i had.

Q

[jskills]

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Raise the flop. Why didn't you? You want a hand like KJ, KQ, or QJ out!

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[ihardlyknowher]

I think it looks great on all 4 streets.

[Grease]

My first reactionw was that I really liked the hand, but I began to be swayed by the arguments to raise the flop, but I think I'm back on the side of raising the turn. You can protect your hand much better and safely give all gutshots a lose-lose situation, instead of a very marginal one on the flop.

I'm still interested in hearing more about raising the flop, though.

[PhatPots]

that flop is a raise. You want to try to isolate the raiser and force everyone to call 2 cold. You Top pair, average kicker is not that strong. There are a lot of scare cards. How would u react if the board paired?

Pots

[Padawan Learner]

Mister King:

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I am 100% unable to offer incorrect odds on the flop via a raise. I've outlined that fact.

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You showed where a K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx would technically be correct in calling, but what about hands like Qx, or gutshots with no club? In addition, while they K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx is technically getting very close odds, they will not be closing the action with the maniacal retarded BB still being able to raise again.

YOu are obvioulsy correct that facing the field with 2BB vs 2sb in this largish pot is going to "protect" your hand better (at the cost of letting them draw on the flop cheaply. And the one thing you do have going for you in this hand is that the BB is maniacal, so it is likely that he will lead into you again on the turn if he is met with no resistance on the flop. If the BB was unknown, then not taking the flop opportunity to pop it would be a pretty big mistake, imo, as there is no guarantee he will lead the turn again.

I don't think your play is necessarily bad, and I think your position is blostered by the high likelihood of being bet into again on the turn. However, I do think that you underestimate the ability for a flop raise to actually "protect" your hand here.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
Mister King:

[ QUOTE ]
I am 100% unable to offer incorrect odds on the flop via a raise. I've outlined that fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

You showed where a K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx would technically be correct in calling, but what about hands like Qx, or gutshots with no club? In addition, while they K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx is technically getting very close odds, they will not be closing the action with the maniacal retarded BB still being able to raise again.

YOu are obvioulsy correct that facing the field with 2BB vs 2sb in this largish pot is going to "protect" your hand better (at the cost of letting them draw on the flop cheaply. And the one thing you do have going for you in this hand is that the BB is maniacal, so it is likely that he will lead into you again on the turn if he is met with no resistance on the flop. If the BB was unknown, then not taking the flop opportunity to pop it would be a pretty big mistake, imo, as there is no guarantee he will lead the turn again.

I don't think your play is necessarily bad, and I think your position is blostered by the high likelihood of being bet into again on the turn. However, I do think that you underestimate the ability for a flop raise to actually "protect" your hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points -- in some cases I do agree that a flop raise is appropriate here. However the texture of the board and the nature of my opponents seems to me to demand delayed aggression.

I think all the Qx non-crub hands can call two cold on the flop, unless I play my hand face up and they have QT. They have five clean outs, getting 6.5:1 if I raise it. They need only 8:1 to call, so if they can count on picking up 1.5SB later in the hand when they hit (and with maniac BB in I think they can), then they need to call. The Qx club hands have ~6.5 (maybe 6.0 if you discount their BD club draw somewhat) outs and they're clearly getting enough to call two.

The gutshots with no crub, however, have to fold to two bets on the flop. As do the bottom pair hands, and pocket pairs searching for a two-outer. Those pocket pairs likely need to fold to one bet anyhow... though I guess KK could continue thinking maybe he's ahead some of the time, and maybe he makes a BD straight or set some of the time. I don't see KK being out there given the PF action.

So of all the likely hands for my opponents (club frush draws, Ax, club gutters, non-club gutters, and Qx), I can only reasonably get one (the non-club gutters) -- maybe two if you throw the weaker Ax hands in -- classes to fold for two bets on the flop. All the others have to call two bets. This is a compelling point, in my opionion. And there's another angle to all of this: if I raise the flop there is a chance BB doesn't bet into me on the turn, meaning I'll be in a really bad spot as far as the odds I'll have to give to the later position players. They could end up as high as 10:1 or so!

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. Why didn't you? You want a hand like KJ, KQ, or QJ out!

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I have explained why. Most of those hands have the odds to call two cold. The only one you identify that does not is KJ no clubs. QJ and KQ (with or without crubs) might have to fold the turn UI, but they will definitely have the odds to call two on the flop. Raising for its own sake is not a virtue -- you need to have a reason, and here I just don't see one.

[QTip]

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Most of those hands have the odds to call two cold.

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There are plenty of hands you can put in an incorrect position to call here that you want out. You're also assuming that you'll be bet into on the turn again, which won't always happen.

Raise the flop.

[Jules22]

raise the flop to isolate the bb and charge draws