Waiting for the turn

[chris_a]

I sat and thought aobut the turn raise for a bit. I decided to lean on the side of aggression because it's been paying off a lot over the last 10k hands and because it gives opponents chances to make more mistakes.

Contrasting factors in favor of:
Raising:
If a call's correct, then a raise is probably better since there's still another player in the pot.

Calling:
I'm either ahead or way behind in which case raising is going to do nothing. I thought that I could easily drive out "Joe"



But what do you do when the "drive out the other player" factor backfires? Do you call down and pay off? Muck? Crap your pants and call mommy?

[ajrenni]

I have a hard time knowing when to apply the "wait for the turn" concept, but let me give it a shot:

The decision to call the flop bet satisfies the 3 requirements in SSH
1. Raising will not get anyone to fold - no one who has put in a bet already is likely to fold now
2. Your hand is vulnerable - in addition to an Ace or King, a heart wouldn't be great to see on the turn, despite your redraw
3. If a favorable card comes on the turn, your equity will be much higher - this I think is also true.

So waiting for the turn isn't a bad idea here. In answer to your second question, one of the cards you didn't want to see showed up on the turn. Does the card ruin your hand completely? No, since you have the third nut flush draw and 2 outs to a full house. But since a new bettor has gotten interested in the hand, one who has stuck around despite aggression from both you and SB, I think it is too late to raise now. I would call here, as weak as it sounds, and get out of the hand altogether if SB and BB start going crazy.

- Andy

[KingOtter]

I don't like a turn raise. I don't think there is enough equity.

Trying to figure out what hand NoReadJoe could have to have a flush, and have cold-called pre-flop. Only hands I can come up with are hands where his flush dominates OP's. Especially since the read 'NoReadJoe is not a bad player' is present.

I'm thinking turn aggression means the Q's may not be good anymore. Especially once NoReadJoe c/r's (remember, he's not a bad player). To any hand that has us beat we're a dog, with draws. Raising assumes that you have more than 50% equity, no? And he either has the nut flush, or something that beats a nut flush since he c/r'ed the flush card.

KO

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
But what do you do when the "drive out the other player" factor backfires? Do you call down and pay off? Muck? Crap your pants and call mommy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends if you have redraws to beat what they're representing or not. If you have redraws, and the pot's big enough you call down. If you ain't got diddly, you fold and starting thinking about the next hand.

KO

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
But what do you do when the "drive out the other player" factor backfires? Do you call down and pay off? Muck? Crap your pants and call mommy?

[/ QUOTE ]
In this case, I would consider what I know about the player. Does he often bet/raise flush draws? Does he often attempt to slowplay big hands? Will he bluff a lot? Next I consider what the player has done in this hand. Does it fit betting patterns I've seen from him before? Notes are helpful here because I can quickly look and see if I've noticed him bluffing or doing other unusual plays.

Try it yourself. Tell me what you think SB's range of hands is on the flop. Then on the turn narrow that range to hands you think SB will check/3-bet.

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a turn raise. I don't think there is enough equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
You might be right about that. I'm at work so can't run through any equity calculations now. I enjoy raising single card flush draws, but I usually do it with A or K, Q might be pushing it. Also, I'm a big LAG [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

I don't really understand how we can peg NoReadJoe as "not a bad player" without a read. I think his check/3-bet of the turn would tend to speak otherwise, unless he's really really good [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[KingOtter]

I ran a few just on twodimes, and most hands we're behind we have about 20% equity (or 9% if we're way behind, like to a higher flush). I don't have pokerstove here so I can't do vs. a range, but I did vs. individual hands. I may be giving NoReadJoe too much credit, but just going by what OP said.

I agree that the turn c/r is a stupid move, but it still seems to say to me he isn't scared of the frush. I mean, what frush wouldn't call down from there, at least? So you're not going to scare it away. So really the only thing it says to me is 'I can beat you'.

KO

[MrWookie47]

I think the waiting for the turn concept applies most when you have a vulnerable hand that can't be protected on the flop but can be with a raise on the turn, assuming that the turn card doesn't ruin your day. Here, I don't think that your hand can be protected even if you do wait for the turn, so I vote for get your money in the pot while you probably have the best hand.

The river call is close. The pot is a decent size, but there are a helluva lot of hands that beat you. If folding is correct, I suppose you could call if you wanted to get a read on Joe.

[@bsolute_luck]

couldn't he have easily bet on trip 7s or paired T? it is hard to say because he didn't face any agression on the flop and we have no reads other than "not a bad player".

so he checks the turn- w/o reads, it is tough to put him a flush at this point. sLP-A then bets- possibly a bluff or flush draw. i'd raise here because we have outs to the flush and to a full house. the c/r though pretty much nails SB on a flush, if not a flopped full house.

either way i think the initial turn raise makes sense..then again, i don't know how to figure out the "equity" thing [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[MrWookie47]

I kept vacillating after I posted this, so I think I want to elaborate. The cards on the turn that could tank your equity are any ten, or any A or K of non-hearts. While the heart dropping may not be ideal, you pick up a redraw to the second or third ranked flush, which may help you if you're behind a seven. Any blank probably increases your equity somewhat, while a 7 or a Q probably drives it way up. To me, this looks like there are fewer cards that ruin your day than I initially thought, and not that many that help you out tremendously. Consequently, I think it's correct to raise the flop. Your action on the turn depends highly on the subsequent flop action.