EV question on a QQ hand

NAU_Player · #1 03-29-2005, 07:44 PM

SB is 36/10/1.4 (73 hands)
-Without the stats, I would have pegged him as SLAP, raising with moderate to good hands.
UTG+1 is 53/7.69/0.67 (15 hands)
-first time I've seen him coldcall pf. usually raises or folds

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets...

Given the possible range of hands SB 3-bets pf and the range of hands UTG+1 coldcalls with; does foldig or calling down have a better EV?

At what pot size (bigger or smaller) does your opinion change?

jookiebrown · #2 03-29-2005, 07:50 PM

good one. I think personally it's raise or fold time. So pop him one and see what he does. two bets now or one here and one on the river ...this way you have some chance to win right there.

toss · #3 03-29-2005, 07:58 PM

I would raise and fold to a 3-bet. I'd try to showdown cheaply on the river.

mannika · #4 03-29-2005, 08:38 PM

Why raise this?

He either has the K or he doesn't. If he does, at BEST you are seeing a showdown for 2 bets, and it may end up costing you more. If he does not, raising the turn is going to cause both SB AND the UTG+1 to fold. I think this is a way-ahead/behind hand, despite the 4 outs that any ace has to the gutshot wheel.

NAU_Player · #5 03-29-2005, 09:12 PM

Ok, lets look at SB range of hands- He's SLA but no indication of being tricky

preflop he 3-bets
AA-TT, AKs AQs AJs AKo AQo AJo (what am I missing? KQ?)

Flop he check/calls - I don't think he's going to not bet an overpair, but he is getting odds to call with overcards
AKs AQs AJs AKo AQo AJo

Turn he leads out - No way he does that in front of the agressor with AQ or AJ
AKs AKo

So, I may be wrong and he could have a smaller PP, but other than that I can't see anything he has that we beat.

Since I'm concerned about long term EV, do we still:

raise/fold the turn (does this win the pot or give us a free SD enough to be profitable)
call down (hoping he doesnt have a K - again how profitable)
fold (saving 2 bets but possibly folding the best hand and losing a big pot)

(FWIW, i folded and so did UTG+1 so we'll never know what he had, but my question is about EV, and not this hand)

ArturiusX · #6 03-30-2005, 12:38 AM

Call this down.

UTG calling with you will make this better than a raise.