River decision

[Paluka]

Good 30/60 game. Pretty much everyone is an idiot.
I raise AsJs utg, utg +1 cold calls because he sucks.
Flop Jh 7d 5h. I bet he calls. Turn 7c. I bet, he raises, I reraise, he calls. River Qc.

Check or bet?

[stoxtrader]

bet, and call a raise, because he sucks. he could easily have made that play with a flush draw or weaker J. QJ certainly possible, and a 7 also, but again. he sucks.

[Buckshot]

Why consider a check? You're going to call if you check and he bets. I think bet is fine.

~stephen

[Paluka]

Here was my thinking:

If this guy has a 7 or a full house he is raising me on the river and I can't fold, so I'd rather check.
If he has QJ I'd rather check.
If he has KJ or JT I would rather bet, but he will be tempted to bet these hands himself.
If he has TT, 99, 88 I would rather bet but these hands are unlikely I think.
I thought the real key was that if he had a busted heart draw he was dumb enough to bluff.
He bet the river and I called, he showed 89o.

[TStoneMBD]

why is TT 99 or 88 unlikely? they seem like reasonable holdings to me.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
why is TT 99 or 88 unlikely? they seem like reasonable holdings to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think mediocre players raise the turn with those hands; if they don't raise the flop they are usually just trying to show the hand down. I felt like he had a weaker jack or a draw.

[Buckshot]

A 7 or a full house is unlikely, unless he had Queens (which is unlikely), because he would've reraised the turn. Most players of this caliber don't stop raising with either of those holdings. As far as him having a worse Jack then there's no reason not to bet because if he does he's going to check behind.

Basically, as I see it, your check isn't profitable unless you know 100% he's going to bluff the river where he would normally fold to a bet. I don't like taking chances on missing potential bets especially given the turn action.

~stephen

[stoxtrader]

he can also bluff raise the river. don't forget.

[George Rice]

Where's this good 30/60 game? ;-)

Is it a game around here or online?

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
Where's this good 30/60 game? ;-)

Is it a game around here or online?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't leave my house for 30/60.