never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

meanjean · #1 02-19-2005, 04:08 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO raises, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (26 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Wow, I have odds to call with my 3 outs

Turn: (16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.

gut shot...

River: (16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button folds, SB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Some guy named Ed said never fold in a big pot unless you're sure your beat...so I called

Final Pot: 19 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has Jd Qd (one pair, sixes).
Hero has 5c 5h (two pair, sixes and fives).
CO has As 9d (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins 19 BB.

housenuts · #2 02-19-2005, 04:31 PM

hmmm. i probably fold once this is 2 bets to me preflop.

how do you have 3 outs on the flop? i definitely call that river bet. you only need to be right once every 15 times.

Nick C · #3 02-19-2005, 04:32 PM

After all the limp-reraising preflop, no one seems to like their hand very much anymore.

I guess in retrospect it looks like you should have bet the turn. (If you are ahead, you benefit from driving out any unduplicated overcards that you can.) But with 5 opponents and 3 overcards on the board, it's hard to imagine you'll be ahead at this point very often. And I don't think anyone's folding a pair in a pot this big.

I like the river call. CO and UTG+1 did both slow down significantly after raising preflop, which makes it look like they both just have overcards. Getting 18:1, closing the action, I think you'll be good here often enough.

meanjean · #4 02-19-2005, 04:45 PM

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hmmm. i probably fold once this is 2 bets to me preflop.

how do you have 3 outs on the flop? i definitely call that river bet. you only need to be right once every 15 times.

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2 5's and a backdoor straight draw

about 3 outs in my opinion

BonJoviJones · #5 02-19-2005, 04:49 PM

A one-card backdoor straight though. Any five will chop (although you do have an extra) but it will also be hard to extract any serious money with 4-to-a-straight on the board.

einbert · #6 02-19-2005, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hmmm. i probably fold once this is 2 bets to me preflop.

how do you have 3 outs on the flop? i definitely call that river bet. you only need to be right once every 15 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 5's and a backdoor straight draw

about 3 outs in my opinion

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One of the fives puts a three-flush on the board. I give you about 2 outs, still enough to make the call.

Fold PF though.

meanjean · #7 02-19-2005, 05:04 PM

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Fold PF though.

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Why?...I have a shot at a set and getting the whole pot?
it's 1 in 8 right...I think there are enough people to get paid if I hit...

Nick C · #8 02-19-2005, 05:08 PM

Hero is getting an immediate 14:2 on his call of the 3-bet. It could go on to get capped behind him by CO, or there could just be additional calls. (Or, as actually happened, someone could decide to limp-call-cap.)

In any event, I think Hero's preflop play is fine. Even though the preflop action does cut down on his implied odds, I don't think Hero should fold preflop for two more small bets with so many people in the pot, once he's already put money in.

Grvnhigh · #9 02-19-2005, 05:12 PM

Folding preflop is disgustingly bad. You are getting an immediate 14:2 when it comes back around to you,and likely better when all is said and done. Even if you knew that the original raiser would cap it, a call here is guaranteed +EV with your implied odds.

That said, I have a hard time overcalling on the river, even closing the action. I probably would do it anyway, because when you see something that is really out of line (like this postflop action), it often indicates that somebody has a screw loose.

Ni Han

Nate tha' Great · #10 02-19-2005, 05:16 PM

Bet the turn.