Seen enough to slow down?

[Aaron W.]

My thoughts:

Getting 3-bet from SB preflop is much different from getting 3-bet from late position. I tend to give much more credit to those raises with no read. So when he 3-bet me, I had AA-QQ/AK in my mind. Too small of a range? Possibly.

When he 3-bet the flop, it was down to AA-QQ. Now if I were to cap, I would be betting the turn most of the time. If he were to check-raise me, I would be very certain he had AA, but it would still cost me 2 BB to call down (and I would, because there'e enough of a donk factor). On the other hand, by just calling the 3-bet, I encourage villain to keep betting no matter what he has, and now I also put myself in position to be more likely not losing at the showdown.

Here's my attempt to quantify what I'm saying:

When villain 3-bets me on the flop, I give him credit for 14 hands: AA (6), KK (1), QQ (6), JJ (1 - the outside chance he's much more aggressive than average). The pot is 22 SB when I'm facing the flop cap decision.

If I just call down, I expect him to continue betting all of these hands (plus I'm in position to value bet if he checks to me, so I'll get 1 bet in every street).

7 times I win 22+4 = 26 SB.
1 time I chop and win 11 SB.
6 times I lose 5 SB.
EV = 11.6 SB

If I cap, how does it play out?

If he donks the turn, I'm calling down because a 3-bet would be super scary. The estimates are about the same:

7 times I win 22+5 = 27 SB.
1 time I chop and win 11 SB.
6 times I lose 6 SB.
EV = 11.7 SB

If I get check-raised, the chances of him having a worse hand go down a bit. I'd dump the JJ and a third of the QQ hands.

4 times I win 22+9 = 31 SB
1 time I chop and win 11 SB
6 times I lose 8 SB
EV = 7.9 SB

What happened? I put myself in a position where I'm very likely losing, but compelled to pay it off. You don't want to drop a third (2) of the QQ hands? What if I just drop the JJ hands?

6 times I win 22+9 = 31 SB
1 time I chop and win 11 SB
6 times I lose 8 SB
EV = 11.5 SB

My EV *STILL* goes down below calling down in the first place. Dropping just one QQ hand makes the EV fall to 9.8 SB.