Theory Post: Raising Vs calling for value

[JooWish622]

I've been thinking about raising when behind or drawing as an alternative to calling in certain situations and was wondering how to workout the profitability/unprofitability of it. Here are two situations:

You're in position with AJ and you are heads up in a raised pot.
Flop is Q96 two of a suit, you have neither of the suit. You bet half the pot, get called. Turn goes check, check. He bets the river half the pot. TUrn and river are a 3 and 4. Against typical opposition, would a raise here be more profitable than calling? I am thinking that the factors that matter here are the likelihood he will lay down a queen or worse and the likelihood he did not call you with a monster on the flop. THis type of board makes the latter a little less likely, given the low cards. The worst iscalling in this situation and seeing him flop over an 8 or 99/JJ or a low pair which bet with the intention of bluffing. When you call, you're approximately getting 3:1 on it and when you raise you're making a 1:1 play. So, I guess if you think you cant call profitably for more than 25 percent of the time and if you can raise succesfully more than 50, then raise??

Second situation:

When you have a draw, 89 hearts on a J62 two heart board in a raised pot and someone then donk bets the flop, should you raise or call. Now, most of the time if you raise 3x before the flop, you will be getting 6:1 on your call with a say 33+ percent chance to win. Clearly this is equitable but would raising the pot right here be more equitable?? I am not sure how to compute this as I dont know how to work out the profitabiltiy of calling.

[john kane]

as for the first situation, id fold on the river. a raise would smell so much of a bluff as you didnt bet the turn. he would typically have the 9 or Q average kicker and is block betting imo, doesnt want a raise but would still cal lone as you checked on the turn.

situation 2

entirely depends on whether the opponents stack size and whether i think i will be reraised if i raise him on the flop.
Id rather raise. a) i get free river b) by min raising i am paying to see the next two cards at the price of his initial bet, given the fact that his turn bet would likely be higher than his flop bet, i am getting to see the two cards cheaper. c) if i hit on the turn, i weak bet it slightly, pretend i have the J and am scared of the flush, then fire out a very large bet on the river.
i dont like calling on that flop as he could then fire out a bet too big to not give you the implied pot odds for the draw.

[ObnxNole]

My eyes hurt.

[Liv Tyler]

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My eyes hurt.

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Best strategy advice ever.

Hand 1: fold

Hand 2: Raise more than a min-raise (I assume this is a heads-up pot)

You have to bluff some % of the time and here is a real nice time to semi-bluff... You prefer to take this down than having to hit a heart -- chances are he missed this flop and you need to bet enough to get him to fold... I will generally raise 2/3 of the pot here... its cheaper to raise extra here than having to fire a big second barrel on turn...