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#41
10-19-2005, 08:10 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
[ QUOTE ]
I usually buy a Powerball ticket when it's over $100M. To me it's the fun of thinking about what I'd do with the money and talking with the wife/friends about it that give Powerball superjackpots the intangible +EV characteristic. [/ QUOTE ] exactly. 
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#42
10-19-2005, 08:48 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
"1. The lottery is NOT 340m it IS 160.4m. They always tell you the annuitized value because it is a larger number. The cash payout today is the samller number. "
Knock off the taxes and you net makes it -EV.
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#43
10-19-2005, 09:09 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I thought I was good at math, but apparently not. For you super math whizzes out there, why are the odds of getting JUST the powerball right 69-1? Arent there only 54 numbers? [/ QUOTE ] Those odds discount the odds of hitting PB+1 other, PB+2 others, etc. The quoted odds of 1 in 69 are the odds of hitting the Powerball and MISSING each and every one of your white ball selections. Jester
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#44
10-19-2005, 09:16 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] btw: $340M (~170M lump sum) is still -EV if you factor in the 40% in taxes (fed/state/city) you pay. [/ QUOTE ] Why the "F" are you guys so worried about whether or not the lotto is -/+EV or not? Wake up, it's $340 Million at stake! I don't play the stupid thing but I am this time just because it's so damn big. I even blew $20, if I don't hit [censored], will I go broke? NO!, will I not retire on time? NO!, is my life affected by it? NO! Will I have to get a loan to pay my bills? NO! Does my girlfriend even care? NO! Will I feel the need to get my money back and play lotto every week until I either go broke or win it? NO! Will I look back on this moment in life and say geez, if I had not made that loose bet I would be up $20 in gambling instead of being labeled a "looser"? NO! Play the stupid thing and hope you get lucky. GET A GRIP! [/ QUOTE ] I posted this more for academic curiosity than anything else. I don't play the lotto, and I wouldn't play it if the jackpot hit 750 million, the odds are just too low for it to be worth my time and money. [/ QUOTE ] You are just plain dumb. [/ QUOTE ] I'm dumb because as a full time student I don't have the money to be pissing away on 100 million to one longshots? Are you familiar with Utility? I would guess not.
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#45
10-19-2005, 09:32 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
[ QUOTE ]
One thing to remember when discussing whether or not playing a game with a large progressive jackpot is +EV is that at some point in time money will have a diminishing marginal utility for you. [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty clear from this thread that buying a lottery ticket for most is an entertainment expense, not a rational gambling decision. However, a few sound pretty serious when discussing "EV" of this lottery, which is a completely meaningless number. If you estimate a fair price of a lottery ticket, meaning a price for which it would become a good gamble for you and me to buy one (or a few thousand), you'd have to do it without considering the jackpot or any payoff > $100,000, and the price would probably come out to no more than 10 cents, since so much of the expectation is tied up in the jackpot. Utility(jackpot)*Probability(jackpot)=0. [ QUOTE ] $240 million is probably not 240 times more valuable to you than $1 million would be. [/ QUOTE ] Utility functions have to have an upper bound, otherwise you run into St.Petersburg paradox. If you construct a utility function that doesn't have any of these problems, and can be usable for everyday gambling decisions, you get with a good precision U(+inf)=U(+$100mil)~U(+$1mil), unless winning $1m is not a very significant increase to your bankroll.
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#46
10-19-2005, 09:32 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
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#47
10-19-2005, 09:48 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
[ QUOTE ]
"1. The lottery is NOT 340m it IS 160.4m. They always tell you the annuitized value because it is a larger number. The cash payout today is the samller number. " Knock off the taxes and you net makes it -EV. [/ QUOTE ] I also think you guys are seriously underestimating the chance at a split pot... curious if anyone has data, but my guess would be that 40 to 60% of powerball jackpots > $100 million have been split... sometimes three or four ways. Of course, you CAN affect your probability of splitting the jackpot: Pick only numbers greater than 31... so that you won't split with all the rubes who use dates to choose their numbers. My guess is that this drawing is still -EV, certainly if taxes are accounted for. What's funny to me, is that most state lottery players are in the lowest income classes, making these drawings a de facto "poor tax"... but when the jackpot gets big, it moves up the income strata and middle to upper-middle class players jump in the game too.
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#48
10-19-2005, 09:55 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
Ok, maybe this is wrong, but I think the odds of hitting you guys are using is wrong.
You have to pick 5 numbers from a field of 52 and the power ball # from a field of 52. Possible combinations (52*51*50*49*58)(52)=16,217,510,400 So your chances of your number being drawing is about 1/16.2 Billion So the jackpot would have to well exceed $16 BILLION for the lottery to be +EV
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#49
10-19-2005, 10:08 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] btw: $340M (~170M lump sum) is still -EV if you factor in the 40% in taxes (fed/state/city) you pay. [/ QUOTE ] Why the "F" are you guys so worried about whether or not the lotto is -/+EV or not? Wake up, it's $340 Million at stake! I don't play the stupid thing but I am this time just because it's so damn big. I even blew $20, if I don't hit [censored], will I go broke? NO!, will I not retire on time? NO!, is my life affected by it? NO! Will I have to get a loan to pay my bills? NO! Does my girlfriend even care? NO! Will I feel the need to get my money back and play lotto every week until I either go broke or win it? NO! Will I look back on this moment in life and say geez, if I had not made that loose bet I would be up $20 in gambling instead of being labeled a "looser"? NO! Play the stupid thing and hope you get lucky. GET A GRIP! [/ QUOTE ] I posted this more for academic curiosity than anything else. I don't play the lotto, and I wouldn't play it if the jackpot hit 750 million, the odds are just too low for it to be worth my time and money. [/ QUOTE ] You are just plain dumb. [/ QUOTE ] I'm dumb because as a full time student I don't have the money to be pissing away on 100 million to one longshots? Are you familiar with Utility? I would guess not. [/ QUOTE ] You don't have a dollar to spare but you can afford to pay for an ISP??? Were not talking about playing 5/10 poker. But don't play, I don't care.
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#50
10-19-2005, 10:26 PM
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Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, maybe this is wrong, but I think the odds of hitting you guys are using is wrong. You have to pick 5 numbers from a field of 52 and the power ball # from a field of 52. Possible combinations (52*51*50*49*58)(52)=16,217,510,400 So your chances of your number being drawing is about 1/16.2 Billion So the jackpot would have to well exceed $16 BILLION for the lottery to be +EV [/ QUOTE ] I am wrong. The probability forum set me straight.
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