I'll make you a bet

"So I guess what I'm saying is that the $5-5 blind PLH game plays in such a way, with such predictable steal opportunites in the range of $10 to $30 profit per steal, that a sufficiently motivated player could tread the prescribed $400 range for quite a while. That's all."


This is an interesting challenge. Enough steal opportunites to cover the expense of playing, as Ray pointed out?


I wanted you to straddle to add more of a test of your abilities at disipline - to counter somewhat the 2 to 1 odds on the money. $2000 for twenty hours? This is about half of what you expect to make at this game if you played "straight up". Not a bad win rate.


If you "know" most of the players or their playing style, and are in a tight and somewhat predictable game this could be accomplished by a number of people. Mmmmm - I am not sure of this last statement. I think many people would disagree. Good thing we are not talking seriously about the money.


-Zeno

"Tommy-As Zeno hinted, your standard deviation is likely (almost certainly) on the "moderate


to high" end,"


this is just coming from one session with the guy but my guess is that he has a very very low SD for a player of his skill level.

"$2000 for twenty hours? This is about half of what you expect to make at this game if you played "straight up"."


Really? Did you mean "double" instead of "half?" If I understand you right, you're saying the expected earn is $4000 in 20 hours. That's $200 per hour. In a game that only has a few $200 pots per hour, that'd be quite a trick.


Tommy

"in 20 hours you will pay about 500 in blinds"


Right.


"and 200 in time or so."


Nope. It's a rake game, the first dollar is on $40. I'll win lots of no-rake pots, and the others will be $1 rake. (It's $2 on $70.) Figure one raked pot per hour, we're looking at $20 in rake, not $200.


Let's say three players limp and after fold fold folding I go ahead and raise it from the blind. They all fold and I pick up $20. That's two rounds of blinds, another half hour. And during those two rounds, 20 hands, all I have to do is pick a spot to steal a little, usually it'll be after the flop after a $5 limp, and I stay with the program.


So what if I raise it from the blinds and someone calls? I'm done putting money in, I'm going to check-fold and hope to scratch up some chips in other spots. In the meantime ...


"also soon enough the competition will see you never call any bigger bets."


Good point. That would be a problem. Otherwise, I'd put up my $1000 against someone else's $2000 and give it a shot.


Tommy

Ah shucks....I was so looking forward to winning that bet...Ha, LOL....

Well no- I mean that you are willing to put up $1000 for 20 hours of staying within a $400 swing. I was just assuming that under "Normal circumstances" you may be able to make $1000 in 20 hours of play. But this is getting off track.

As Gilda use to say on Saturday Night Live -


Oh - Never Mind.


-Zeno