Laying the smackdown on a nut peddler

[ajmargarine]

UTG+2 is something like 7/1 after 150 hands. I'm think he's nut peddling and is not just in a cold run of cards. I honestly can't remember him playing a single hand. I highly doubt he's raising a Tx hand from this early of a position, so given the action this is probably JJ-AA.

HU, this is probably a no-brainer raise. But, with SB the LAG still in the hand, does that complicate things enough to just fold this? Comments welcome.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

UTG+1 ($98)
UTG+2 ($110.45)
MP1 ($174.45)
MP2 ($62.15)
MP3 ($80.20)
Hero ($147.80)
Button ($171.20)
SB ($154.40)
BB ($91.70)
UTG ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($13) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20...</font>

Basically, you are figuring that since hes so tight there is no way he has a ten in that spot. Which is probably correct. However, just because he has stats like that doesn't mean he can lay down a hand.

Like you said, he probably has a AA-JJ, but how do we know he can lay AA down on that board?

I understand your thinking, but I choose to let the peddlers peddle and when I get the opportunity hang my nuts in there face.

It's worth a shot. Nut peddlers get nervous when there's an obvious better hand on board. He'll know that people can call a raise preflop with a JTs or T9s. I think it's a good play.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
However, just because he has stats like that doesn't mean he can lay down a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this guy was multi-tabling. And the 150 hands were spread over this and another session. So I figured, let's find out now what he'll do in this spot. If I'm going to be facing him over the coming months, I want to know what he's made of.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However, just because he has stats like that doesn't mean he can lay down a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this guy was multi-tabling. And the 150 hands were spread over this and another session. So I figured, let's find out now what he'll do in this spot. If I'm going to be facing him over the coming months, I want to know what he's made of.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, I didn't say I thought the play was bad, in fact, I am not sure it matters much either way in this spot.

How come i never see you playing?


edit to say: I have just found that at 100NL (thats what were talking about here right) making plays, just isn't profitable. Even against the "regulars that play well"--which are basically nut peddlers.

[soah]

I would fold preflop.

The information you want to pick up here can be learned sooner or later just by watching him play hands against others.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]


How come i never see you playing?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well I do try to avoid the good players. So I guess I have no clue why we haven't met up. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I was wondering if anyone was going to recommend this.

[poboy]

Reraise pf and then decide what to do from there. If he just calls he probably has AK as well(maybe JJ/QQ) and the pot is yours for the taking. If he reraises you can obviously muck as this will always be QQ+. JMO

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+2 is something like 7/1 after 150 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what are his wtsd/w$sd?