Top set--No bet - Page 2

Morrek · #11 12-23-2005, 04:00 PM

I would call if I got (implied) odds to fill up

#12 12-23-2005, 04:02 PM

Just call and fold turn unimproved? Don't you think someone in position will raise this flop with AdAx or KdKx?

Morrek · #13 12-23-2005, 04:09 PM

Well, it does depend alot on the player, and how much we have behind us(and how likely he is to pay off with a made flush on paired board). I do prefer to not go allin on the flop though, atleast without a good read. I might bet turn if there's enough room to fold to an allin, or check/call if he's usually beting weak.

Morrek · #14 12-23-2005, 04:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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I'd pot flop and then go from there, preferebly not put much more money in the pot without improving.

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What happens if:

Villain min raises flop.

Villain makes a pot size raise.

Villain just calls.

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Villain minraise, I call.
Potsized raise I think it's push or fold, depends on feel/read but I do both with a little err on the fold side probably against an unknown.
Villain calls, I bet turn regardless of what falls, however if a diamond falls and he raises I'll probably fold, unless he gives me odds.

#15 12-23-2005, 04:24 PM

I would think we lead flop for 3/4 to PSB and I'd probably push over the top of any raise, especially one by the button who could be on an overpair with a diamond. This could also put a sqeeze play on MP who may be drawing to a 4th diamond and might fold under pressure.

I just don't think I could fold on this flop to a raise. Especially since we can stack someone if we boat up.

c/r seems bad here. I don't think we gain any information or folding equity by it. If the button is playing AA or KK with a diamond I think he calls the push thinking he's either ahead or has enough outs.

ajmargarine · #16 12-23-2005, 05:41 PM

I would like to hear more about c/r vs. leading PSB here. I've been thinking about this and haven't really wrapped my head around it yet. I think the chances of me being raised are close to zero if I lead. I am happy to get it in on the flop. I think a c/r does have more FE than you guys are giving credit for. Still pondering.

Morrek · #17 12-23-2005, 06:06 PM

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I would like to hear more about c/r vs. leading PSB here. I've been thinking about this and haven't really wrapped my head around it yet. I think the chances of me being raised are close to zero if I lead. I am happy to get it in on the flop. I think a c/r does have more FE than you guys are giving credit for. Still pondering.

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Yeah it probably has some FE, but it's more likely to be called when you're behind and win small pot when you're ahead. So I like to play these kinds of hands a little more safe and just bet out.

mulebennett · #18 12-23-2005, 06:33 PM

i'm no expert but i've always thought that if you lead the flop with a made set, especially on a draw-heavy board, it makes your decisions a lot easier for you. on this board i definitely come out firing, and if i get raised, push the flop. obviously this is read-dependent, but i think fancy play is dangerous on a three-flush flop.

#19 12-23-2005, 06:35 PM

It seems that this is a quantitative question. i've wondered about it before, so I did the math for the flop... I hope.

p(specific two suited, when 3 of same are on the flop) =0.06 per person
p(no flush per person) = 0.9538
opponents = 7
p(no flush at table)= 0.72 (this is a suprise to me)

EV

You make full/quads: 0.22 x 1 (fraction you win)
You are unimproved: 0.78 x 0.37 (fraction you win when your opponent doesn't have, or make, a flush; =1-(0.28 (has flush) + 0.35 (makes flush)

EV = 0.51

So, given overlay the flop must be played. I have no idea how often villian folds to a push here. Maybe someone who is mathy can take this further to argue an optimal play?