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  #21  
Old 12-23-2005, 01:19 AM
ravensfan ravensfan is offline
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Default Re: Scuba_Curtains: AK hand 2

Maddog i like the analysis...
First things first: im a borderline fish and dont come anywhere near these levels. i play 100nl tables and 22 tourneys. So if im donking it up please be patient [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
But arent there other possibilities too... such as a flush draw with 2 overs ie 3h, 4h, 8o which is pretty much also a coinflip versus an overpair, although i think that hero would be slight favorite with what i would guess to be 13-13.5 outs (since hes more likely to have Qs, Js, or AQ, than Ks if hes equally likely to raise Js as Ks) given villians hand range.. which should give about 55%?
these could definitely have a lot of implied odds, especially if villian is as predictable in betting as in preflop hand selection and is capable of laying down an overpair to a hard c.r... which increases fe
and pushes the +EV higher... this situation will come up what 4% of the time?
im too lazy and tired to do the math on it, but couldnt this boost the EV to positive territory both for this hand and for future BB situations?
also, since youll likely hit the flop 1 in 3 wouldnt u want to keep the pot small and close off the betting to a) stop a reraise which would force a fold to either QQ or KK which you might want to see that free card against b)disguise your hand or c) keep the chips out of pot that are -EV (ie those that were raised: u get 2x ur bet 1 in 3 times and 0x ur bet 2/3)
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  #22  
Old 12-23-2005, 02:51 AM
maddog2030 maddog2030 is offline
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Default Re: Scuba_Curtains: AK hand 2

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But arent there other possibilities too...

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Yes, but there's so many of them it would make the analysis way too complicated. I tried to cover the major bases, and using what I felt to be somewhat conservative estimates (though this can be argued), I think that makes up for the missing cases.

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such as a flush draw with 2 overs ie 3h, 4h, 8o which is pretty much also a coinflip versus an overpair

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That's only good for QQ/JJ, so say you're splitting the big blind there with some FE tacked on depending on your opponent. AA/KK still has you beat.

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these could definitely have a lot of implied odds

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There isn't much implied odds. These stacks are only like 33BB. There's only a pot sized bet and a push left for these stacks postflop. If these stacks were deep, then I'd agree with an autocall preflop if villian is one who'd pay off.

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is capable of laying down an overpair to a hard c.r

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Not going to happen with such small stacks.

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also, since youll likely hit the flop 1 in 3 wouldnt u want to keep the pot small and close off the betting to a) stop a reraise which would force a fold to either QQ or KK which you might want to see that free card against b)disguise your hand or c) keep the chips out of pot that are -EV (ie those that were raised: u get 2x ur bet 1 in 3 times and 0x ur bet 2/3)

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Against this hand range, you would have to play this hand pretty passive/weak a majority of the time to keep the villian's hand range as wide as possible, which is crucial to extracting any value out of him because he's going to see your overcard, but you can't know how strong he is.
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  #23  
Old 12-23-2005, 03:06 AM
Michael C. Michael C. is offline
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Posts: 136
Default Re: Scuba_Curtains: AK hand 2

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Are there really quite a few players at the $215's that are precisely this tight (namely never open-raising with AQ from EP?) You've played more $215s than I have, so maybe there are... but there are virtually none at the $109s.

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That's not true. There are more players with this range in the early rounds in the 215s, but there are definitely some players in the 109s with this kind of range too. Have you ever seen Sonnenbrand raise with 10 10 or AQ from first or second position level 1? And I can think of several other examples. In fact would you or would most people here raise with those hands levels one or 2 from utg or positions 1-3? There are plenty of 109 players who will raise in early position with AJ or AQ, but it's just not true to say there are virtually none who won't. I'm a lot looser than most 109 players, and I just limp with those hands from ep.
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