3/6: AQ UI calldown

[wackjob]

I would raise the flop in hopes of a free turn card with the intention of folding the river UI or debating a crying call on the river.

[paco]

I think the turn is an easy raise, especially if you're seriously considering calling the river (frees showdown UI). This really looks like a 7 or small pp. Your raise really looks like trip kings and besides you have an amazing draw. If you don't bluff/semi here where do you?

[StellarWind]

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I think the turn is an easy raise, especially if you're seriously considering calling the river (frees showdown UI). This really looks like a 7 or small pp. Your raise really looks like trip kings and besides you have an amazing draw. If you don't bluff/semi here where do you?

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You assume too much. Villain could be either bluffing or playing trips here. A pair may be most likely but it isn't nearly guarenteed.

Villain is not folding a better hand so you are at best pushing him off a bluff with outs instead of collecting a bluff bet on the river. Small gain at best and often a small loss.

You could easily be 3-bet by a king in which case you lose nearly an entire BB (compared to calling down) whether you call or fold.

It's also possible Villain won't bet a small pair on the river, especially if the third club comes or another card drops into the T7 split. It sucks to buy a losing showdown that would have been free.

A good compromise play is to call the turn and then look at the river. If you catch a counterfeiting card like T or 7 then definitely call. If you catch a scary card like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and he bets anyway then give up. If it comes down somewhere in the middle use your judgment.

Raise the flop and he will call then see what he does on the turn. If he checks to you which he probably will whether he has a King or not bet, and he will either fold or raise. And if he calls you are beat then.

[imported_leader]

I don't like raising the flop in hopes that this guy will check the turn. He just donked the flop into a PFR and 3-bet.

[Roy6]

this is a very good post, but I disagree with you that villain will check all the rivers you mentioned.

I think the players donking after this preflop action will donk any draw scare card at least.

FWIW, I saw a player in the exact same situation (holding mid flop pair) donking the river after I bluffraised the turn with a lot of outs.