Stay put or bump it back down...

[mack23]

Good morning,

I just recently started tracking ITM and ROI after reading all of your great posts. I know this is a small sample but after 60 $20+2 SNGs on the party I'm at 31% ITM and 0% ROI (dead even) [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] Mucho frustrationo. I had nice success at the $10+1 level but was not tracking then I would guess 40-45% ITM and 25-35% ROI. So for you experienced posters... time to call it in and go back to the $10s or stick it out with the $20s cause those numbers are not as bad as I think they are? Thanks much for your advice.

-Mack

[ddubois]

I hope you get some good advice, because I am stuck in exactly the same rut. I get 40%+ ROI at 10/1, but I'm break even at 20/2.

[Irieguy]

Even though 60 SNGs is not very many, I would be worried about your 31% ITM. What I've found is that my ITM is pretty stable after 50 or so SNGs, whereas my ROI will continue to fluctuate even after 300.

Looking at my ITM numbers over the past 300 $33 SNGs, I never had a block of 60 games with an ITM under 40%, and my overall ITM was 42%.

It's too early to tell yet, but I think I'm running into a similar problem moving to the 55's. I'm going to move back down to the $33's for the most part, while continuing to play a few $55's until my sample size is big enough to know something (150-300, IMO). You might want to try the same thing, ie, play 1 $22 for every 3 $11 while continuing to track your ITM and ROI in both. Even though it takes a very large number of SNGs to know exactly how you're doing, you probably know whether you're winning or losing after 60. That's why I think it's safe to switch limits pretty quickly, whereas I would withold judgement about the need for major strategic and tactical adjustments until you had a large enough sample size with which to extract some meaningful information.

[Texas Pete]

If there's a question in the back of your head about the table you're playing at, then move down. Move down, play 50, keep track and see what happens. Then move back up and play 50.

[tallstack]

It is difficult to provide any meaningful answer to this question, but there are a few things that come to mind.
Bad streaks can certainly happen, and they will be magnified when you are new to a higher level. It is not unheard of to have a run of 100 or more games where your ROI is zero or negative. Check some old posts from any poster you respect and there will likely be something from one of their bad periods.

I don't think that many have found a large difference in the quality of play between the $10s and $20s, but you may have to make some adjustments to the new level. Have you got a feeling for how you stack up relative to the competition at this level? If you feel that you are seeing obvious mistakes and, or weaknesses in your opponents, then you are likely going to be able to beat this level. If you are not seeing these, then you may not be ready to win at this level.

IMO, it is mostly a bankroll issue whether or not you need to move down. If you have the bankroll to continue playing the $20s then you will likely learn and improve faster there than moving back down to the $10s. If your bankroll is getting strained then there is a good chance it will effect your play at the most critical times when you are forced to make decisions for all your chips.

There is no shame in moving down, of course. I have done it and I am sure that many, if not most, have as well. You may or may not have to in this case, but don't worry if you do. You can always move back up later.

Dave S