Hand Against Random Taggy Dude

[Jdanz]

i think this is a pretty good analysis, but it really nags me how incredibly rarely we need a better hand to fold on the turn to make this +EV

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
bluffing the river when you've spewed on the previous streets is almost always right. i don't know why it's right

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure you do, but I'll write this anyway...

It's because each bet narrows your range a little more from the villain's perspective, if he has a small made hand, like 76 or something. If you give up half your bluffs after the turn, you're something like 2x as likely to have the villain beat on the river. You'd think this kind of matches the odds for the 2 bets he expects to put in when he calls the turn, but when he made that call (1) There was a possible chance of improvement (2) He knows he may not have to call the river

From the villain's perspective, I used to think the whole call the turn/fold the river line was a 2+2 FPS invention, because it's an attempt to "dance between the raindrops" of probability. I thought that the bluffer's hand range does not converge fast enough between the turn and the river. But I was probably wrong, there's some pretty big space between those raindrops sometimes.