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#11
12-12-2005, 03:29 PM
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Re: 10/20 QQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hey bob, I think UTG+1 will be calling with whatever he thought was good enough to raise with, though I do normally just cap the flop OOP. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think a cap is going to push UTG+1 out here so I would cede the value of a flop cap in order to get him to lay down for 2BB on the turn. Losing the EV on the flop has got to be more than balanced out by the equity edge we gain on pushing him out on the turn. Now, if he wants to call 2 cold on the turn, that's his prerogative, but it's likely an error. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, the pot is now ginormous, so I don't know how much a turn raise will protect our hand, and I'm not sure it will be of that much more value. With this hand and this size of the pot, I want to put as many bets as possible right now since I am very certain that I am ahead here and gain as much value right now as possilbe 
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#12
12-12-2005, 03:44 PM
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Re: 10/20 QQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hey bob, I think UTG+1 will be calling with whatever he thought was good enough to raise with, though I do normally just cap the flop OOP. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think a cap is going to push UTG+1 out here so I would cede the value of a flop cap in order to get him to lay down for 2BB on the turn. Losing the EV on the flop has got to be more than balanced out by the equity edge we gain on pushing him out on the turn. Now, if he wants to call 2 cold on the turn, that's his prerogative, but it's likely an error. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, the pot is now ginormous, so I don't know how much a turn raise will protect our hand, and I'm not sure it will be of that much more value. With this hand and this size of the pot, I want to put as many bets as possible right now since I am very certain that I am ahead here and gain as much value right now as possilbe [/ QUOTE ] Let me ask you this, then. If you don't think a turn raise will protect our hand, would you rather him pay 4 small bets and 1 big bet to see the river or pay 3 small bets and 2 big bets on the river. Of course, this works on an assumption that usually holds but is not always true: that the SB will check the turn because you capped the flop and that he will bet the turn if you call the flop. Either of these assumptions could be in error, especially given the dangerous nature of the board. I do understand the reasoning of getting in the bets now. Basically, you seem to be saying that the turn card could cause "all hell to break loose" and therefore it might become unraiseable?
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#14
12-12-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: 10/20 QQ
[12:08] me: I don't know that it's that close
[12:08] me: sb's check3bet is usually a biggish draw [12:08] me: more often than 88 i think [12:09] me: add that to the fact that you won't like raising ~20% of the time [12:10] me: and if he has 88 there are a fair # of cards that he may not lead [12:10] me: and you're usually "waiting" to fold a 2-outer that UTG+1 can hold [12:10] me: given that you hold the Qh a lot of his weak coldcalling-an-EP-raiser-hands are out [12:11] me: I guess I could post all this [12:11] me: but you know what it would amount to? [12:11] me: me saying "cap it up"
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#15
12-13-2005, 12:48 PM
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Re: 10/20 QQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hey bob, I think UTG+1 will be calling with whatever he thought was good enough to raise with, though I do normally just cap the flop OOP. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think a cap is going to push UTG+1 out here so I would cede the value of a flop cap in order to get him to lay down for 2BB on the turn. Losing the EV on the flop has got to be more than balanced out by the equity edge we gain on pushing him out on the turn. Now, if he wants to call 2 cold on the turn, that's his prerogative, but it's likely an error. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, the pot is now ginormous, so I don't know how much a turn raise will protect our hand, and I'm not sure it will be of that much more value. With this hand and this size of the pot, I want to put as many bets as possible right now since I am very certain that I am ahead here and gain as much value right now as possilbe [/ QUOTE ] I disagree with both of your reasonings. KDawg, why don't you think hands will fold getting 13.5:2 on the turn if we succeed in raising the turn? Many hands should and would fold. Mempho, by taking your line you're making it correct for utg+1 to call the flop with an overpair, while capping would give that hand incorrect odds. An overpair is his most likely holding imo, so I think capping the flop is the best play. It seems to me you're just looking at a big pot and don't take into consideration what cards your opponent might have.
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