$55: Standard small overpair, take 2

[tigerite]

Ah, well ok, but it's only marginally behind - I mean, it's not totally crushed or something. You knew what I meant [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I agree with you too that this is the kind of push you'd make very quickly at a lower level, but not so much at a $55 and even less so at a $109, although there are still random idiots about at those levels, they are generally less in number.

[mlagoo]

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Well, it's silly to just call the MP bet if you're willing to put all your chips in the middle. But you might be priced in if you played that way.

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well i don't know if that's necessarily true. i think it's possible that 88 sticks all of his chips in here from an aggressive button, and, to be honest, a) I want to give him the opportunity to do so, and b) I'm far more worried about MPs hand that buttons.

if button folds we have slowed down MPs CB if he has overcards, and we can reasonably fold the turn to another bet.

i'm not saying this is a perfect line, but i do think it's better than blindly pushing. i also don't think i'm expressing myself well =/

[tigerite]

Problem with calling TT, although it would be nice to induce a push from Button or whatever, the problem is it doesn't really happen often enough unless he's totally awful, and plus which it just is going to present us with an even worse situation on the turn, when so many cards can smash our hand to itty bitty pieces even if it's ahead now. Of course an A may slow down MP if he has JJ or QQ here, but then what if he has AK/AQ, etc. Bleh.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
TT isn't ahead of 2 overcards and a FD.

I always think these 77-TT overpair hands are tricky and close, and then I lose all my chips. This isn't a $6, you aren't going to stack somebody with a 9. Fold.

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This is very far from the truth.


On another note, because of the preflop rasie and the size of the flop bet, I think I'd just let it go. There is no way I'm pushing this. Since you're still scared of overcards.

You could call, but if he bets again, regardless of the turn card (excluding the T of non hearts) you are in an even tougher spot.

This looks like it's going to get worse with every following action.

Now if he didn't raise preflop, I push!

[Paul Thomson]

I'm not sure why everyone says push or fold. IMHO, pushing is by far the worst possible choice. If you push, then the pot will have $1225 and the original better will have $460 behind. Therefore, the original better will be getting the correct odds to call with any flush or straight draw. And practically be getting the necessary 3.1-1 odds to call with any two over cards. So what are we really accomplishing by pushing? It doesn't allow our opponent to make a mistake.

In addition, if the button woke up with a hand then we're in serious trouble. The button has us covered and now we're out of the tournament.

CALLING:
Calling doesn't seem to make a lot of sense either. If we call, we've committed 1/3 of our chips to a pot. What are the chances that we're ahead? Our opponent bet half his chips into a pot with two people behind, and one of those opponents is the chip leader. Now if we call and then fold the turn we'll have $730 chips. Since the blinds are at 15/30 and we'll be moving up to 25/50. It's not an ideal situatin but we aren't crippled either.

The way I look at it, we're either slight ahead or way behind. Given the strength that our opponent has showed, I put him on a higher pair.

I think folding is best.

[tewall]

If you call, and he bets again, you're in a very easy spot -- you call. You're making a decision now whether or not to go with the hand. Another poster pointed out that raising doesn't really do anything, since anyone with a draw has the outs to call. So if you're not folding, the best way to get the money in would be calling. That makes sense. Or the despised min-raise.

But I'm with the consensus in folding here.

[tewall]

Boy, that's an interesting line. Call the flop and fold to a turn bet. I assume you check behind if it's checked to you? Or bet and hope he's not trapping?

You'd be getting such good pot odds on a turn bet, it would be hard to fold. It's hard for me to believe that you'd be behind so much of the time that folding would be correct.

I can't see calling in the first place unless you were committed to going all the way with it.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Boy, that's an interesting line. Call the flop and fold to a turn bet. I assume you check behind if it's checked to you? Or bet and hope he's not trapping?

You'd be getting such good pot odds on a turn bet, it would be hard to fold. It's hard for me to believe that you'd be behind so much of the time that folding would be correct.

I can't see calling in the first place unless you were committed to going all the way with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, im not saying my line is the best line, i'm just kind of thinking out loud, (hopefully) for the benefit of those reading (and myself).

if my hurriedly completed math is right, villian will have about 450 chips left on the turn, and the pot will be a little under 700. i think it's reasonable to think he doesn't push AK here more than 1/3 of the time.

i would check through a blank turn and probably call a villian push on a blank river (read: a blank for me in this case is a nonace).

the ever-present problem of SNGs is that you just dont have enough chips to really effectively put villian on a more narrow range of hands than just, any hand that raises preflop and CBs -- a pretty big range. which is why the answer, most of the time, is just to fold here.

that being said, i certainly have not been convinced that calling < pushing, which i think is way too reckless.