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  #1  
Old 12-02-2005, 02:40 PM
King High King High is offline
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Location: Connecticut
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Default Not sure if I was correct?

5-5 local bar game i know most players very well have good reads on villain. Game just turns to 10-20 I have 1200 BB 66
Villain has 2200 LP.

4 limpers and I check.

Flop KJ6 all hearts. I fire $75 all fold villain calls.
Turn Ac I fire $100 he moves all in.

After a minute or so my read is Ah only maybe Aj not a made flush. My questions how many times do I have to be right to make this call. Is this a good call. I think with no read on this player I fold. Comments I am trying not to be result orientated In my thought process.
Thanks
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  #2  
Old 12-02-2005, 02:50 PM
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Default Re: Not sure if I was correct?

Yes it really does seem as though villan has Ah and now he has TP + nutflush draw. I would feel really weird about calling this massive overbet, but it all depends on player reads. Im not exactly sure how often you have to be right here in order to make this call correct but if you haven't noticed there the straight card hit and he could very well be holding Q10 and is trying to ptotect his hand from a 4th heart falling that would horribly de-value his hand. I think im laying this down.
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  #3  
Old 12-02-2005, 03:15 PM
staunchdog staunchdog is offline
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Default Re: Not sure if I was correct?

After Villian pushed all in:
There's 1450 in the pot.

It'll cost you 1000 to call.

If he has one heart and a pair, there are six hearts that won't pair the board, so 40/46 river cards favor you (.87 chance of winning 1450 dollars, .13 chance of losing 1000). Your EV is $1132

If he has two hearts, you have 10/46 outs (.22 chance of winning 1450, .78 chance of losing 1000). Your EV is -$561

Let p be the chance that he has a heart and a pair (so 1-p is the chance he has a made flush).

This math works out very nicely. You should call if he has the pair and the draw, instead of the flush, at least 1 time in three:

$1132*p >= 561*(1-p)
p >= .33
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  #4  
Old 12-02-2005, 05:50 PM
staunchdog staunchdog is offline
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Default Re: Not sure if I was correct?

Arithmetic error in the previous post: -$561 should only be -$461. That means you need:

p >= about .29,

I believe the situation is very favorable for a call.
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