River play?

[WildDan]

Alright, I don't have many questions with how I played this hand, I think it's pretty standard. My question has to do with the river, as I tend to drop the ball and either not value raise when I should or make a crying call when I shouldn't.

Sorry, no reads. Just finished my first orbit at table and haven't seen anything suspicious.



Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Fair enough, I flopped the nuts. Villain's first raise had me thinking A9 and he's protecting, but the cap showed significant strength.

Turn: (7 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

I've "improved" my nut straight here with a flush draw. I'm putting the villain on a set, as I can't see anything else playing this aggressively.

River: (15 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero ???

I now have a flush.. but if Villain had a set, he's now made a boat or quads. Is this an easy raise? I'm obviously not folding, but should I just be calling here?

Thanks in advance.

[MrWookie47]

No reads I think I call.

[2+2 wannabe]

I just call here too

What hands do others put the button on? No raise PF, pedal to the metal after. I would think 76s , 55, 88 and he's passive, maybe 99 (but then no PF raise means he's unusually passive, given there were already 2 folds before he limped), 98s, ... what else could he have that would account for this betting pattern?

On his 76s hero splits, 55/88/99 he loses, 98s he wins (villain cannot have a flush). So my question: why bet the river? Is that really a "value bet"? Hero is obviously not knocking villain out with one bet.

Usual newbie warnings apply.

(Typo fixed.) ("He" =&gt; "Villain")

:grunch: I'd just call. Even if the villan was going wild with two pair (as opposed to a flopped set), the two pair may have been with the 5 in which case you are staring at the FH. Plus, the villan didn't shy away against the runner runner flush.

[ QUOTE ]
..., 55/88/99 he loses, 98s he wins (villain cannot have a flush). So my question...


[/ QUOTE ]

I see that my post is open to misunderstanding. What I meant was 98s hero wins (if villain has 98s, villain cannot have a flush).

Sorry for confusing the post by attempting to state the obvious.

My question still stands. What are the other three hands that villain can reasonably have that make hero's river bet a value bet?

[admiralfluff]

you are correct pdx.

Based on the way villain played the had, he either has a flopped straight or set on the turn.

55,88,99 make up 9 combinations. There are also 9 remaining combos of 67. On the river, there are 7 set/quad combinations, and 9 combinations of straights. When villain caps the turn, he is betting the river.

If we check-call the river we get 1BB 56% of the time and lose 1 BB 44% of the time for a total of .13 BB EV profit

If we c/r the river, villain will 3-bet when he has the set, and call the c/r when he has the straight. (We assume that every once in a while villain 3-bets with a straight or worse, so we can call his river 3 bet).

We earn 2 BB 56% of the time and lose 3 BB 44% of the time for a total of -.17 BB EV loss

If we bet/call the river villain will raise with the straight less frequently than he raises with the boat. He will always raise with the boat, so we lose 2BB 44% of the time. In order for the EV of bet/call to be greater than check/call:
.56*(1*(1-x)+2*(x))-.44*2=.13
where x is the frequency with which he raises when he has a straight. Solving, we find he has to raise when bet into with the straight at least 80% of the time for bet/call to be more profitable than check/call. This kind of analysis is important, hope I did it right.

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
No reads I think I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[monix]

pdxhero and admiralfluff are right; check/call is a better line than bet/call...bet/raise is chip spewing.

[Koss]

Either way, you should have some good notes on the villain by the end of the hand. Against a non-maniac the only reasonable range of hands he could have is a set or straight. The donk probably limped AA. Just call here. If he shows some crap like 89o then you know next time to take him to the cleaners with your strong but non-nut hands. I'll give players the benefit of the doubt that they aren't maniacs, but there's a good chance you've found one here, and I'd start licking my chops!