PS $750K super sat - bubble hand, everyone is short

[The Student]

We are on the bubble of a $22R Turbo super sat to Sunday’s $500+30 MTT on PokerStars. Started with 83, down to 10, top 9 get seats/T$530 and 10th gets $30. As you can see, nobody at my table has a M over 2.5, and it’s the same situation on the other table as a short stack just doubled up – so it’s going to be hard to wait for someone else to bust out since we are all so short. The villain in this hand is a player that I see playing these sats and the Sunday MTTs often, and I think he is good (meaning he knows how to play the bubble), but I’ve actually never played with him before.


PokerStars Game #3125325527: Tournament #15326096, Hold'em No Limit -
Level XVI (4000/8000) - 2005/11/22 - 02:26:08 (ET)
Table '15326096 10' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: stpdry31 (25640 in chips)
Seat 6: 1001001 (17720 in chips)
Seat 7: stogie smokr (13176 in chips)
Seat 8: DieRatty (29486 in chips)
Seat 9: the dudester (28650 in chips)
stpdry31: posts the ante 400
1001001: posts the ante 400
stogie smokr: posts the ante 400
DieRatty: posts the ante 400
the dudester: posts the ante 400
DieRatty: posts small blind 4000
the dudester: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to the dudester [Td As]
stpdry31: folds
1001001: raises 9320 to 17320 and is all-in
stogie smokr: folds
DieRatty: folds
the dudester: ???

I don’t have access to pokerstove right now, but I think villain will push here with A5+, K9+, Q10+, J10+, and any pocket pair higher 55+. I think I’m ahead of that range, and I’m definitely getting the correct odds to call (31,000:9,000 = 3.4:1), but does this matter? I mean, I'm not playing for first here so chip accumulation is much less important than survival. But, having said that, I am not guaranteed to survive if I fold - unless someone goes out in the next few hands, I will likely have to push in the next 6 hands with little FE (only 2xBB). If I call and win, I’m practically guaranteed a seat, but if I call and lose, I’m down to 11,000 with the small blinds next hand. So if I lose, I’m basically sitting with 6,500 behind my small blind.

Do you call or fold and why?

ts-

[bobbycharles]

How long till blinds move to 5000/10000? If real close to the blind increase, I may stall a little and lay it down and let stogiesmoker take the $10k Big Blind hit. Otherwise, its a puke and call.

[ZeroPointMachine]

I think I would fold here. You are probably well ahead of his range but would be crippled by a loss. The shortstack at your table can't make it through the blinds because of the antes and has almost no FE. I think you have to let that situation play out.

I think I changed my answer three times while typing this.....tough spot.

[betgo]

Very easy fold. I don't care if you are ahead of villain's range. I might call with AA here. There are 10 players left for 9 seats. You have an above average stack. If some idiot doesn't bust himself out, one of the short stacks will get blinded out. If you are going to play hand, be the aggressor, so you might just steal the blinds. But don't play a hand.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
How long till blinds move to 5000/10000? If real close to the blind increase, I may stall a little and lay it down and let stogiesmoker take the $10k Big Blind hit. Otherwise, its a puke and call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a couple of minutes, definitely too long for me to stall this one out. Also, I had used up most of my time bank already.

[The Student]

Yeah - I think you're right, always better to be the aggressor in this situation than the caller. If there was another short stack at the other table, it wouldn't have been an issue for me. But since there was only one short stack who might be able to fold out another orbit, I was worried that I might be facing blinds big enough to put me all in within a couple of hands (once they hit 5K/10K). But yeah, I think it's a fold and push UTG if I have to with a little FE.

ts-

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah - I think you're right, always better to be the aggressor in this situation than the caller. If there was another short stack at the other table, it wouldn't have been an issue for me. But since there was only one short stack who might be able to fold out another orbit, I was worried that I might be facing blinds big enough to put me all in within a couple of hands (once they hit 5K/10K). But yeah, I think it's a fold and push UTG if I have to with a little FE.

ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a regular tournament when you worry about being short stacked. Just fold UTG and fold in the blinds. Then fold your way around again. If you get aces or something, maybe push. If the tournament isn't over by the time you hit the blinds the 2nd time, maybe you will have to defend your blinds. Remember, there are a lot of shorter stacks who will have to make moves before you do.

[Double Eagle]

I believe the next level is 6k/12k. There is very little chance that the blinds will make it back around to you. Easy fold.

[bobbycharles]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah - I think you're right, always better to be the aggressor in this situation than the caller. If there was another short stack at the other table, it wouldn't have been an issue for me. But since there was only one short stack who might be able to fold out another orbit, I was worried that I might be facing blinds big enough to put me all in within a couple of hands (once they hit 5K/10K). But yeah, I think it's a fold and push UTG if I have to with a little FE.

ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a regular tournament when you worry about being short stacked. Just fold UTG and fold in the blinds. Then fold your way around again. If you get aces or something, maybe push. If the tournament isn't over by the time you hit the blinds the 2nd time, maybe you will have to defend your blinds. Remember, there are a lot of shorter stacks who will have to make moves before you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betgo is right on the money....I posted a similar post a few months back....and you can see his response. So mad I could spit

I've played a lot of these and have had pretty good success getting to the money by being the aggressor. My original post said to check when the blinds increase and get somebody to blind out...otherwise puke and call. I want to partially withdraw that answer. It is incredibly dependent upon your location on the table and others chip sizes vs their relation to the blinds. I've been in situations where the blinds got so high so fast, nearly everybody in the BB was all in, but nobody could call because they'd be all in too...so it was a matter of folding around until somebody got unlucky. Regardless, Betgo knows a heckuva lot more about these situations than me, so a fold it is.

[Superfluous Man]

I'm folding AA here. The blinds will eat up stogie smokr, and they will probably eat up someone at the other table before they force you all-in. Thanks to the nature of the turbo tournament, you can fold your way in here. You may have to stall in the blinds (I hope you saved some time bank), but you're guaranteed the seat if you don't do anything stupid like play a hand.